• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1034

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 05, 2022 02:41:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 050241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050241=20
    KSZ000-050415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1034
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0941 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northern and west-central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...309...

    Valid 050241Z - 050415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308, 309
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds should increase across parts
    of northern and west-central Kansas as a developing MCS tracks
    southeastward tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar data shows a developing MCS over
    northwest KS, where multiple 65+ mph gusts have been reported along
    with a brief tornado. As additional cell mergers take place over the
    area, continued upscale growth and storm-scale organization is
    expected -- aided by a strengthening southerly low-level jet per
    regional VWP data. The pre-convective environment remains
    moist/unstable (2500-3000 MLCAPE), while 35-45 kt effective bulk
    shear oriented perpendicular to the amalgamating cold pools should
    support further organization during the next couple hours. The
    primary hazard should be damaging gusts up to 75 mph as the MCS
    tracks southeastward, especially as rear-inflow jets become
    established and forward propagation increases with time. In
    addition, modest clockwise curvature in the low-level hodographs
    ahead of the MCS could support an embedded tornado or two where deeper/sustained updrafts develop along the leading cold pool.

    ..Weinman.. 06/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ld8FABsZZLvNHGRW50ardqkKncsEHKPbr8gSMlkNsxdN9XnLexfj22ekpN-bsSSIti5hJ72f= 4ImQN-XQenkmSrLt8w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39450110 39800088 39980031 39999959 39969916 39539864
    38949828 38449822 38169866 38139917 38340022 38600075
    39110108 39450110=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 14, 2023 12:50:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 141250
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141250=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-141415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1034
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Extreme northeast OK into northwest/central AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141250Z - 141415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A small severe storm cluster may persist through the
    morning, with a threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. Watch
    issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Immediately in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough
    across southern KS, a small but intense thunderstorm cluster has
    persisted this morning across northeast OK, with recent reports of
    severe gusts and hail. This system may continue to move downstream
    along the instability gradient into northwest and central AR through
    the morning, though its longevity is somewhat uncertain since it is
    following in the immediate wake of another severe storm cluster.

    The 12Z LZK sounding depicted very favorable deep-layer shear and
    sufficient buoyancy to maintain a threat of large hail with embedded
    supercells within the cluster. Any additional upscale growth could
    result in an increasing severe-wind potential, despite the somewhat
    elevated nature of the ongoing convection. Watch issuance is
    possible downstream in order to address these threats.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6D4dP7ttHJngfZC20MkgjnNBZWIZOUaucswrfG8I4Zhgvs0YYLoubfBm4wcyN1YqteXhRvdaw= k0gcxC4JGYvMDX6SI0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36519482 36029323 35379269 34979299 34999369 35359493
    35989554 36519482=20


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