ACUS11 KWNS 050019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050019=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-050145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska into northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...

Valid 050019Z - 050145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar data continues to show splitting
supercells capable of large hail and locally severe gusts across
parts of southern Nebraska this evening, aided by generally
long/straight hodographs and 35-45 kt 0-6 km bulk shear per OAX VWP
data. As this activity continues to move slowly southward, the risk
of large hail up to 2 inches in diameter will be the main threat in
the near term. With time, there may be some tendency for convection
to grow upscale as outflow spreads southward into a moist/well-mixed
boundary layer characterized by lower 60s dewpoints and steep
low-level lapse rates. While sporadic large hail will remain a
concern, the risk of severe gusts up to 70 mph will increase with
southward extent -- especially with any upscale-grown storm
clusters.

Eventually, convection should spread southward into northern KS
where lower/middle 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
are contributing to a strongly unstable airmass. As this occurs in
conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet, further upscale
growth will be possible and additional watch issuance may eventually
be needed.

..Weinman.. 06/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6NkfhCXJ0RBaMVyLzchIbmrsNMn1jsdHKivWgyQyXnawOfndso8z7cATZoYLX89Bxsagw21x-= I1-6XLrbfctrmaGUKk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 40940055 41369939 41729712 41689644 41399626 40519624
39829657 39659881 39780002 40140043 40490060 40940055=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141238=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southern OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141238Z - 141445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development is possible later this morning,
though timing remains uncertain. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...At 1230 UTC, increasing cumulus is noted on visible and
IR imagery across northeast TX/southeast OK, which may be the
precursor to more robust elevated thunderstorm development. Regional
12Z soundings depict very favorable instability and shear across the
region, with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse
rates, and strong effective shear in excess of 60 kt. This is
resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for supercells,
with an attendant threat of very large hail.=20

However, uncertainty remains regarding the timing and coverage of
development through the morning, with stronger large-scale ascent
likely focused north of this region. While a watch will likely be
needed at some point later today across parts of the MCD area, the
short-term potential remains uncertain. Watch issuance is currently
considered possible through 15 UTC, though it will become likely if
there is any indication of robust elevated supercell development.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wiII_6UupYiEtMKFkKg9eV-gp3rgi1ARkJ-6Zdtc93TP4oqq5dVxWsoj9R-foNyARcicBIqf= goVh7WauJS4iohKrjg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34169721 34529621 34159417 33719289 33119227 32719275
32709362 32819510 32939682 33099725 33439743 34169721=20


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