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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1032

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 04, 2022 22:25:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 042225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042225=20
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1032
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of southeast MT...northeast WY...and
    southwest SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042225Z - 050100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms will increase
    between 22-00Z, and persist into the evening hours. The primary
    hazard should be sporadic large hail.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude
    midlevel trough moving eastward across the Northwest, with
    increasing large-scale ascent overspreading the northern Rockies and
    adjacent High Plains. Regional VWP data shows enhanced midlevel
    westerly flow accompanying the trough, while surface observations
    show easterly upslope flow across parts of northeast WY into
    southeast MT. As surface pressure falls continue over the Rockies, a
    modest increase in the easterly low-level flow beneath the
    strengthening westerly flow aloft will result in elongated/straight
    hodographs characterized by 35-45 kt effective bulk shear. As
    diurnal destabilization of the boundary layer continues beneath
    steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing large-scale ascent,
    isolated to widely scattered splitting cells capable of sporadic
    large hail and locally gusty winds should spread eastward into the
    afternoon. The marginal and localized nature of the threat will
    likely preclude watch issuance.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_b9ZiOBf32OENjLnKXHL2Krwbqr-b9486T8QGJIX7xpFQSCPUFx61v35SWt1GHJY8gVvan3CI= In6TCS4tV_-HyZ-Gko$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43880655 44350709 44760760 44920784 45350829 45870835
    46200813 46230760 46180647 45760514 44750387 43780358
    43260366 42800452 42860537 43370598 43880655=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 14, 2023 12:23:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 141223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141222=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-141345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1032
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0722 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Central/eastern AR into northern MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141222Z - 141345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat will spread southeastward this
    morning. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...At 1215 UTC, a supercell cluster is moving
    southeastward across central AR, with some tendency for forward
    propagation noted over the last hour. This cluster is coincident
    with a convectively enhanced midlevel vorticity maximum across
    northern AR, and immediately downstream of another storm cluster and
    vorticity maximum across northeast OK. A southwesterly low-level jet
    should help to sustain this cluster into mid morning, with strong
    deep-layer shear (as noted on the KLZK VWP) continuing to support
    organized storm structures. Embedded supercells will remain capable
    of large hail and localized damaging gusts.=20

    While the cluster is currently somewhat elevated, relatively limited
    downstream cloudiness should allow for some diurnal heating, which
    could result in increasing damaging wind potential if further
    upscale growth occurs. This cluster will eventually move out of WW
    287 into parts of northern MS, where downstream watch issuance is
    possible.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kp7ZrpQwvF9phDQmNDMw_5zdS4x8JmN4wSSmRN6T9oZJykcl95V4iUkendsTBgW19OrT1pqE= IzpYOTo2VQ-de1OnCE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35019297 35429153 34919033 34538891 34178831 33708829
    33398870 33388948 33469020 33709159 34189274 34649308
    35019297=20


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