ACUS11 KWNS 042100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042059=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-042300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042059Z - 042300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the far western Oklahoma
Panhandle and southeast Colorado may intensify as they move east
through the late afternoon and evening hours. A watch is possible in
the coming hours for parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and perhaps
southwest Kansas if the threat for severe hail/wind increases.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the far
western OK Panhandle and far southeast CO. Over the past hour,
storms have exhibited periodic bursts of lightning as well as
cooling cloud top temperatures. Although individual cells have
struggle to maintain intensity, low-level ascent along a surface
trough (and in the vicinity of a weak surface low) along with
locally reduced inhibition from prior attempts at CI is allowing for
continued re-development. A gradual uptick in convective intensity
is possible in the near term, with strong to severe winds the most
probable hazard given the well-mixed boundary layer and steep
low-level lapse rates. A possible mix of discrete cells and clusters
will meander eastward within the mean west/northwesterly flow regime
and move into the increasingly buoyant air mass in place across the
OK/TX Panhandles and southwest KS. As storms encounter this air
mass, deepening parcel trajectories will experience strengthening
effective bulk shear, which may support improving storm organization
and an attendant hail/wind threat. The exact timing of when this
uptick will occur remains somewhat uncertain, and latest hi-res
guidance has struggled to capture recent trends with this activity.
Trends will be monitored and a watch is possible by the late
afternoon/early evening hours if storm intensification can occur.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/04/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!67lv7Usu2LaE-LcKaQ6Uw_AjhTz6sFUOHRTD1Y_UXcwU5kdNmzbDbB-wb4kXOGmVhzK7vreXu= QEI-BuSYza4jaSO8Ss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 34630143 35440197 36450214 37290214 37650158 37650081
37380017 36859984 35979972 35169978 34489993 34330048
34380098 34630143=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141020=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-141145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Southern MS into adjacent parts of eastern LA and
south AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141020Z - 141145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase later this morning, with a
threat of hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a couple of tornadoes.
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...At 1015 UTC, an elevated thunderstorm cluster is moving east-southeastward across northern LA. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 288
was recently issued in order to address the short-term severe
hail/wind threat associated with this cluster into parts of
south-central MS. Meanwhile, weak shower development has recently
been noted from eastern LA into far southern MS/AL, within a richly
moist environment characterized by dewpoints in the upper 70s F.
Short-term guidance continues to suggest the potential for deep
convection to erupt in this region near or after sunrise, within a warm-advection regime attendant to a moderate southwesterly
low-level jet.=20

If deep convection can be sustained within this regime, MLCAPE of
greater than 2500 J/kg and effective shear of 50-60 kt will be quite
favorable for supercell development, with an attendant threat of
hail (possibly very large) and localized severe gusts. Initial
development could be slightly elevated, but decreasing MLCINH would
support surface-based supercells with time, with low-level shear/SRH
sufficient for a tornado threat as well. There is also some
potential for the ongoing cluster to propagate southeastward and
become rooted closer to the surface later this morning.=20

While uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of the severe
threat with southward extent this morning, Tornado Watch issuance is
possible if surface-based supercell development appears imminent.
Such a watch would potentially include southern parts of WW 288.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LGG4zZFUM80__d8MU99nsB0t8RxxFO71sncBtBZ3crDaVt2gebbmgqAnJcUKz3_DYeRgoxfp= TDxaHjda4grnRKe6zI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31259127 31539110 31688981 31648900 31498798 30978780
30838776 30458829 30358968 30239104 30389127 30749131
30959131 31259127=20


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