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ACUS11 KWNS 111844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111844=20
FLZ000-112115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

Areas affected...northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111844Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may become severe through the afternoon, with
marginal hail, wind, or a brief/weak tornado possible.

DISCUSSION...Substantial rain and thunderstorms persist along and
north of a stationary front extending from the northeast Gulf of
Mexico across northern Florida. Although cirrus is noted on visible
imagery south of this activity, filtered sunshine as well as heating
through advection has resulted in gradual destabilization.=20

Surface winds are generally southerly, but weak. Southwest winds are
noted along the Atlantic Coast, where temperatures have warmed into
the mid 80s F. While winds speeds in the lowest 2 km are generally
at or below 25 kt currently per MLB VWP, they are forecast to
increase and this may result in more favorable storm relative
inflow, low-level shear, and air mass recovery immediately near the
boundary.

Given the destabilizing air mass and favorable time of day, a few of
the cells within the precipitation band may become strong to severe
at times, with marginal hail and gusty winds most likely. Low-level
shear, in combination with ample moisture and steep low-level lapse
rates, may favor a brief/weak tornado, but the overall tornado
threat appears low at this time.=20

The enhanced convergence along the Atlantic Coast may yield further
development over the next few hours,

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/11/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tyuAcRQQ0b2lP4NIrZ1UOxs-AH7uJP1vFjBq7seSLEeSwMMYHG3qZSpdQZyk4CjrJV3w5KmH$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29498340 29888226 29988125 29518104 29048077 28728076
28598112 28748142 28978187 28928232 28958280 29168299
29498340=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 030354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030353=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...eastern Texas...central and southern Arkansas...and
northern Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

Valid 030353Z - 030530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes,
remain possible as a line of storms continues advancing eastward
across eastern Texas.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues advancing across eastern
Texas, and far southwestern Arkansas, and will reach far
northwestern Louisiana over the next hour or so. Farther south into southeastern Texas, storms have gradually been undercut by the cold
front, and subsequently weakened as they become increasingly
elevated atop the post-frontal airmass.

Farther north though, storms remain vigorous locally, with a few
severe-caliber gusts having been observed over the past hour. This
risk for severe/potentially damaging winds will continue, along with
risk for an embedded tornado or two.

A very modest increase in pre-frontal/warm-sector showers has
occurred east of the Sabine Valley, and this convection bears
watching, as the upper system crossing western Texas advances and
gradually acquires negative tilt, along with a corresponding
increase in both large-scale ascent, and the deep-layer wind field,
occurs downstream.

..Goss.. 03/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ReypWFRfrvsZ_Dd_XEYcnvjgHtnY72GBr6zj-_1Zq-KZP51Hs-hISitUtNexUeUH04mzoV1a= UZ7vN4ZYr7F-Pl7FA0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 31859534 33539450 34509419 34979165 33959110 32899139
31609297 31419432 31859534=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 142209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142209=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-142345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of east-central Missouri into
central/southern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

Valid 142209Z - 142345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest risk for very large hail and tornadoes in the
next 1-2 hours will be in southern Illinois. Intense storms near the
cold front will eventually be overtaken by the front and undergo a
weakening trend.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercell storms continues east/southeast
of the St. Louis area. A secondary cluster is also ongoing near the
cold front in west-central/central Illinois. An area of locally
backed surface winds is evident in surface observations ahead of the
more southern cluster of supercells. Despite only modest low-level
shear, this area will pose the greatest risk for tornadoes in the
next hour or two. These storms will also pose a risk of 2-3 inch
hail.

Farther north near the cold front, the threat for tornadoes should
be less. Large/very-large hail will continue to be a threat given
favorable deep-layer shear and storm mode. With the cold front also
beginning to make southward progress, the duration of the severe
threat may be more short-lived farther north. Buoyancy will decrease
behind the front and is not expected to support strong/severe
elevated storms.

..Wendt.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_SNYtoevMoRbWqXh-Q8jpPov_3F9RrzHKmFRXifbLjLUJunIBa65eBP4o4OSB8T6qP57h-pem= Vv0FTB02QL8SqkKGCM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38029022 38279047 39079072 39379078 39829006 40228821
39918770 38628794 38108902 38029022=20


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