• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1030

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 04, 2022 20:49:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 042049
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042049=20
    NEZ000-042245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1030
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

    Areas affected...Central to eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042049Z - 042245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible by late afternoon
    along a warm front draped across central to eastern Nebraska. Storms
    may be capable of severe hail and wind. A watch is possible later
    this afternoon/evening to address this concern if/when a widespread
    threat becomes apparent.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show a stationary
    boundary/warm front draped across western to eastern NE. A growing
    cumulus field is noted along this boundary across parts of central
    to eastern NE, and recent GOES Day Cloud Phase imagery suggest
    several towers are beginning to deepen within this zone with some
    cloud glaciation occurring. This trend is in line with recent hi-res
    guidance, which shows convective initiation along the warm front in
    the coming hours. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints
    in the 60s are supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 1500-2000
    J/kg with minimal inhibition remaining per latest mesoanalysis and
    modified RAP forecast soundings. Although regional VWPs are sampling
    rather modest low-level flow, 30-40 knot winds aloft are supporting
    adequate effective shear for storm organization. As such, initially
    discrete cells along the front will likely become organized and pose
    a severe hail/wind threat. Although storm coverage remains somewhat
    uncertain given the lack of appreciable synoptic forcing for ascent,
    outflow consolidation and storm clustering is possible given
    sufficient storm coverage due to a marginal off-boundary deep-layer
    shear component along and north of the front. Trends will be
    monitored as storms develop with watch issuance possible in the
    coming hours.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dzI1zOSxlfXyfCDNEyIu-4NS24wfQy2jl3Dtrw2f8MjJYbwzAkugFuzqauncErsqrkmLYwR5= 2VuiOwGy-vFlamgy1g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40639910 40879985 41280011 41659981 41869925 42109808
    42229695 42169635 41779610 41399623 41109667 40759810
    40639910=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 14, 2023 09:09:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 140909
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140908=20
    ARZ000-141045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1030
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0408 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Northwest into central AR

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287...

    Valid 140908Z - 141045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A large hail threat will persist through the early
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of elevated supercells have recently
    intensified from extreme northeast OK into northwest AR. These
    storms are likely being aided by ascent attendant to a
    mid/upper-level shortwave trough over central KS. MUCAPE of greater
    than 1500 J/kg and relatively strong deep-layer shear will continue
    to support a short-term threat of supercells with large (possibly
    very large hail) into northwest AR. The longevity of these cells is
    somewhat uncertain, but the southernmost supercell may persist into
    a larger portion of northwest AR as it moves along the instability
    gradient through the early morning. Depending on short-term
    convective trends, local watch expansion may eventually be needed
    into parts of north-central AR.=20

    Additional development has recently been from western into central
    AR, in the wake of earlier extensive convection. The environment
    remains conditionally favorable for elevated supercells in this
    region, and some severe-hail threat may redevelop through the early
    morning into central AR, within a weak but persistent low-level warm
    advection regime.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9cNA0jvRkQmTGaR3A7Aw_ZHGujbEeSnnnrrEBqPPwPiz1chCiLURyGfUeoe4XSuXDXciGrNCP= gX0jSuSkEV6_X5g-74$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36409450 36469399 36029252 35219177 34499183 34599381
    35339432 35849441 36409450=20


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