ACUS11 KWNS 042049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042049=20
NEZ000-042245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Areas affected...Central to eastern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 042049Z - 042245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible by late afternoon
along a warm front draped across central to eastern Nebraska. Storms
may be capable of severe hail and wind. A watch is possible later
this afternoon/evening to address this concern if/when a widespread
threat becomes apparent.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show a stationary
boundary/warm front draped across western to eastern NE. A growing
cumulus field is noted along this boundary across parts of central
to eastern NE, and recent GOES Day Cloud Phase imagery suggest
several towers are beginning to deepen within this zone with some
cloud glaciation occurring. This trend is in line with recent hi-res
guidance, which shows convective initiation along the warm front in
the coming hours. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints
in the 60s are supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 1500-2000
J/kg with minimal inhibition remaining per latest mesoanalysis and
modified RAP forecast soundings. Although regional VWPs are sampling
rather modest low-level flow, 30-40 knot winds aloft are supporting
adequate effective shear for storm organization. As such, initially
discrete cells along the front will likely become organized and pose
a severe hail/wind threat. Although storm coverage remains somewhat
uncertain given the lack of appreciable synoptic forcing for ascent,
outflow consolidation and storm clustering is possible given
sufficient storm coverage due to a marginal off-boundary deep-layer
shear component along and north of the front. Trends will be
monitored as storms develop with watch issuance possible in the
coming hours.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/04/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dzI1zOSxlfXyfCDNEyIu-4NS24wfQy2jl3Dtrw2f8MjJYbwzAkugFuzqauncErsqrkmLYwR5= 2VuiOwGy-vFlamgy1g$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40639910 40879985 41280011 41659981 41869925 42109808
42229695 42169635 41779610 41399623 41109667 40759810
40639910=20
=3D =3D =3D
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