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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1029

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 04, 2022 20:18:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 042018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042017=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-042145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1029
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

    Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...southwestern Nebraska...and northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042017Z - 042145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Local severe risk is expected to gradually evolve as
    storms increase across the northeastern Colorado vicinity over the
    next 1-2 hours. WW may be required.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loop, and latest radar imagery, shows
    storms increasing in the vicinity of the border between northeastern
    Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle. The storms are occurring
    within a a general easterly low-level upslope flow regime, but
    appear to be focused near the intersection of a west-to-east front
    lying across northeastern Colorado and Nebraska, and a lee trough
    near the Front Range.

    Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer (upper 40s and
    low 50s over the high Plains and into the low 60s farther
    southeastward into Kansas) continues. This has resulted in moderate destabilization, with 1000 J/kg mixed layer CAPE over northeastern
    Colorado increasing to 2500 J/kg southeastward into Kansas. As
    storms spread slowly east-southeastward (0-6km mean wind roughly 280
    at 15 kt), and encounter increasingly more favorable instability,
    expect intensity to likewise increase, aided by moderate 0-6km
    shear. Along with risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts
    will be possible -- particularly later on as some upscale growth of
    convection likely occurs. We will continue to monitor evolution of
    the convection, along with the possibility of WW issuance within the
    next 1-2 hours.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8z2grahlm0p8Zip3eQEppDptdmtajIH8f2yl5z0EGCv947qJxSgLdCy7Dh-yMV2Vu9OO-C5mz= IimHE4B8lKPjPcbiMU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40800440 41120315 40990195 40560102 39060049 38680160
    38550252 38590372 39340385 40160487 40800440=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 14, 2023 08:08:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 140808
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140807=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1029
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0307 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of east-central MS...central
    AL...west-central GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 140807Z - 141000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some hail threat may develop through the early morning.
    Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but will be
    reevaluated depending on short-term convective trends.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently developed from extreme east-central MS into central AL, within a warm advection regime
    associated with a modest southwesterly low-level jet. Rich low-level
    moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting
    MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg across the region, sufficient for vigorous
    updrafts. Strong mid/upper-level flow is supporting effective shear
    of 40-50 kt, sufficient for organized convection, and a few cells
    have exhibited marginal supercell characteristics.

    Coverage of the severe threat remains uncertain early this morning,
    with the potential for multiple storm mergers and a complex
    convective mode, given the number of storms that have recently
    developed. However, any elevated supercells that remain somewhat
    discrete could pose a large hail threat through the early morning as
    they move east to east-southeastward. A near-surface inversion will
    tend to limit severe-wind potential, though locally damaging gusts
    cannot be ruled out, especially if any organized clustering occurs
    later this morning.=20

    The severe threat may remain rather isolated, and watch issuance is
    currently considered unlikely. However, this will be reevaluated if
    short-term trends support the potential for multiple mature
    supercells emerging out of the ongoing convection later this
    morning.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9vwXW7aABGCh2evHg3AZ-v7qp4kP9ma3D6aHkkVizfeT_Y_mq-4KoDRMqZgXS6iH4sY27bsKH= r9oPpLtAD1eQZwDF-s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33578844 33428721 33078564 32608435 32198422 31928519
    32088601 32458730 32758816 33198866 33578844=20


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