ACUS11 KWNS 040900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040859=20
FLZ000-041130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 040859Z - 041130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat will likely continue along the
immediate coast of south Florida from the northern Florida Keys
northward into the Miami Metro area.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Miami shows a
large area of rain to the south and east of south Florida, from the
coastal area near Miami extending about 125 statute miles offshore.
Some of the storms embedded in the area of rain have had rotation.
An the Miami WSR-88D VWP has a long and curved hodograph, with 0-3
storm relative helicity just above 300 m2/s2. This will continue to
support an isolated tornado threat this morning with the stronger
cells that move into the immediate coastal areas of south Florida. A
potential will exist for waterspouts, but the tornado threat will
remain marginal, and no watch is expected.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/04/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6497Zl8i2EbAiqssiZxRT1Wi-orrQEjRsVeP-zXJAHQdwFtD1qVq8Fh3nTOAm8qvDLoBtC9wn= Uu6M6E47m5dbqIe2qk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON 27117987 27297995 27238016 26698016 26268018 25758028
25428044 25028072 24878059 25128025 25987989 26597979
27117987=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 140311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140310=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Arklatex Region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

Valid 140310Z - 140515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe convection will focus along a corridor from
southeast Oklahoma into the Arklatex region.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection continues to aid convective
regeneration across the Arklatex as 1km AGL wind near 30kt is
focused into this region, per SHV VAD profile. Over the last hour or
so, numerous elevated showers have developed across southeast OK,
likely a sign of increasing warm advection immediately ahead of
approaching short-wave trough. Latest thinking is convection will
continue to develop within a strongly sheared, and steep lapse rate
environment such that some severe risk will likely continue beyond
watch expiration. 00z soundings from SHV, FWD, and OUN all exhibit thermodynamic profiles favorable for robust updrafts capable of
generating hail.

..Darrow.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8nUyXfNkaHnlKB7jWe-3QDsvwc-IHj3usTYYNtfyruN-JPxniS012XZhPD7IkYFlG28SsQ-hn= 0uv2XaHcszXNyoKmCg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32099149 32909397 34169666 34979602 33229147 32099149=20


=3D =3D =3D
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