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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1016

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 02, 2022 20:44:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 022044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022043=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-022215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1016
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...

    Valid 022043Z - 022215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The large hail and damaging wind threat will continue into
    the evening hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous storms have developed within
    severe thunderstorm watch 303 with scattered reports of large hail
    and damaging winds. Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, multiple
    reports of large hail have been received in the Washington DC area
    where stronger shear is present and updrafts have exhibited moderate
    rotation. Farther south, storm mode is more multicellular with less
    of a hail threat and more of a damaging wind threat.=20

    The hot and unstable environment ahead of this activity should
    continue to support a severe weather threat to the Atlantic Coast
    into the evening. Farther west, additional rounds of thunderstorms
    have developed. Instability is less in this area due to earlier
    thunderstorm activity, but at least a marginal threat for damaging
    wind gusts exists with this activity. Therefore, the severe
    thunderstorm watch will be maintained in central/western Virginia in
    the wake of the first round of storms.

    ..Bentley.. 06/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wzM6McuzCQ7pHfFy-aiGPOKz18hhNPg1rb03KYpxInAE1JGwG8NognaqKtxuM5lZLaXTO9nf= LNoSMnm5akyTToDhYQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 38777810 39357665 39447522 38287490 37517554 37077686
    36977786 36577879 36747946 37987913 38777810=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 13, 2023 18:30:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 131830
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131830=20
    TXZ000-132000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1016
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...is portions of central into northern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131830Z - 132000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across central and
    northern areas of TX. The stronger storms may produce large hail,
    with some stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Trends are being
    monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite trends depict growing CU on the cool
    side of a stationary west-to-east baroclinic zone, with the latest
    KFWS radar data suggesting convective initiation is underway. While
    the low-level jet has been gradually weakening through the
    afternoon, 18Z mesoanalysis depicts modest low-level WAA with the
    approach of a low-amplitude 700 mb perturbation. Modest low-level
    veering but considerable hodograph elongation is evident in forecast
    soundings. As such, it is possible that supercells may develop north
    of the boundary over the next few hours given 60-70 kts of effective
    bulk shear. 2+ inch diameter hail may accompany the strongest
    storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed, with
    the timing of storm intensification still uncertain.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7TmzcTJUzuu-DPnb_hL3hi9-ohPnl84XLPNYhqHYnGzKJ-YBZwVL2YXVrSLT22PobVuyYX3y_= xT67eA1cZb8De2PJlI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32499890 32909853 33239770 33299632 33049567 32379549
    32159559 31949613 31829702 31849772 31939823 32079859
    32499890=20


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