• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1015

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 02, 2022 19:36:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 021936
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021935=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-022100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1015
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0235 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

    Areas affected...Southern Virginia and northern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...

    Valid 021935Z - 022100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms will move across
    southern Virginia and northern North Carolina this
    afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have started to cluster from Wilkes County, NC
    into Pittsylvania county, Virginia. These storms will continue to
    move east toward a more unstable environment with MLCAPE around 1500
    to 2000 J/kg. Shear is quite weak in this region (25 knots per FCX
    VWP and 16 knots per MRX VWP). This, combined with weak mid-level
    lapse rates may limit severe weather potential. However, the ongoing
    storms have shown some vertical growth and some marginally strong
    wind signatures in the low levels. Since these storms are moving
    toward a more unstable environment, similar storm characteristics
    can be expected as they move east through the afternoon/evening.=20

    A southern areal extension of severe thunderstorm watch 303 has been coordinated with WFO RNK.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Z1ivLCtBu7R320Azyt3w8YnEAbWymVEgepWc7lT1aahkcKTCqbzSy-vrsAxYGBgU3Pi_0apo= 51dagzeC4SsX-a8s1M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 37107974 37397717 37127593 36617567 36107610 35877994
    35938100 36128129 36548057 37107974=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 13, 2023 18:07:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 131807
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131807=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-131930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1015
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...portions of far southeast Colorado into far
    northeast New Mexico...extreme southwest Kansas...and western parts
    of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131807Z - 131930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing for portions of the
    southern High Plains. Large hail is expected to be the main threat
    with the stronger storms, though a couple severe gusts and a tornado
    cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be
    needed, with issuance timing the main source of uncertainty.

    DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has been clearing across portions of the
    southern High Plains, resulting in boundary-layer destabilization
    and convective initiation over the higher terrain along the CO/NM
    border. 8+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates atop upper 50s surface
    dewpoints are contributing up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, with 50+ kts of
    mid-level flow supporting very long, straight hodographs. As the
    boundary layer continues to destabilize further this afternoon,
    supercells should manifest, with large hail the main threat. Given
    steep low-level lapse rates and some veering low-level flow, a
    couple of severe gusts and a tornado are also possible.=20

    At the moment, thicker cloud cover persists across the TX/OK
    panhandles, which may take longer to destabilize. A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed across portions of the
    southern High Plains, though specifics regarding timing of WW
    issuance remains uncertain at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49WnS_20NUyWkhlomdi6e4MJ4yaqCrtIhyfu1UWj1j8Lqj65otTQvEJaTM-4n746pwZbyAfXu= URcuvjFhIwXCiXZ1bs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36780393 37170433 37410439 37650407 37790314 37660227
    37320134 36840091 36290092 35960151 35900230 35950282
    36110332 36780393=20


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