ACUS11 KWNS 021704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021704=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021704Z - 021900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through the
afternoon with a threat for damaging winds and marginally severe
hail.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have already warmed into the upper 80s to
near 90 across much of Virginia and Maryland with slightly cooler
temperatures across southern Pennsylvania where cloud cover is
present. Modifying the IAD 12Z RAOB for current surface conditions
shows MLCAPE around 750 J/kg which matches SPC mesoanalysis.
Continued heating will lead to additional destabilization and MLCAPE
around 1500-2000 J/kg by later this afternoon.=20

A few storms have already started to develop over the higher terrain
in eastern West Virginia, where the inhibition has been eroded and a
mid-level shortwave trough is traversing the region. Eventually
expect storms to move off of the higher terrain with additional
development likely across Maryland, Virginia, and southern
Pennsylvania as ascent moves east. The 12Z IAD RAOB showed 0-6km
shear around 37 knots with at least some increasing mid-level flow
forecast this afternoon. Therefore, shear should be sufficient for
storm organization including the potential for some rotating
updrafts. However, scattered to numerous storms are anticipated in
the uncapped atmosphere this afternoon which could lead to colliding
storms and a more clustered storm mode.=20

A watch will likely be needed within the hour as more robust/better
organized storms develop.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-S-2JZWIJciaBkaL6jvhgPtFFXjNoQQLwf-CZUZnjbjbcHvgr81ijWidkcJwYo6cJsmx5_O_R= NvsmNufkBhoWzfqnkE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38127541 37747729 36997951 36798079 36978104 37298109
37738076 38047989 38297961 38887920 39537856 40597640
39547415 38107502 38127541=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 131601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131601=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern MS/AL...southwestern
GA...and the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131601Z - 131830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually intensify through the early
afternoon, while posing some threat for large hail and damaging
winds. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection has slowly increased in coverage across
central MS into central/southern AL over the past hour or so. This
activity is developing along/near the stalled synoptic front, but
still north of a remnant outflow boundary that is evident in visible
satellite imagery across southern MS/AL. As robust daytime heating
occurs, temperatures should increase into at least the mid to upper
80s, and perhaps lower 90s. A rather moist airmass is also present
along/south of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Moderate to locally strong instability is
forecast to develop by this afternoon across parts of
central/southern MS/AL into southern GA and the FL Panhandle.

Area VWPs indicate weak low-level winds gradually strengthen with
height to around 40-50+ kt at mid/upper levels. This should support
some threat for supercells, although there may also be a tendency
for convection to form into small bowing clusters. As low-level
lapse rates steepen with diurnal heating over the next few hours,
the threat for damaging winds should likewise slowly increase. Large
hail will also be a threat with any supercells that can be
sustained. Current expectations are for the ongoing activity to
gradually strengthen as it spreads east-southeastward through the
early afternoon. Depending on convective trends, one or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches may eventually be needed.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8CoZIEK1Tqc0NFLR9A7z3t0h69sxAYKqGK3JjfOF_nO_J7u9ixVDB5TItFa6Dc3k6oACNb1V0= HZF4wTt-jq1PQu7X9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 31819047 32329042 32408949 32528765 32828681 32738533
32438356 31548316 30928321 30508353 30408428 30668697
31278956 31819047=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 131601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131601=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern MS/AL...southwestern
GA...and the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131601Z - 131830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually intensify through the early
afternoon, while posing some threat for large hail and damaging
winds. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection has slowly increased in coverage across
central MS into central/southern AL over the past hour or so. This
activity is developing along/near the stalled synoptic front, but
still north of a remnant outflow boundary that is evident in visible
satellite imagery across southern MS/AL. As robust daytime heating
occurs, temperatures should increase into at least the mid to upper
80s, and perhaps lower 90s. A rather moist airmass is also present
along/south of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Moderate to locally strong instability is
forecast to develop by this afternoon across parts of
central/southern MS/AL into southern GA and the FL Panhandle.

Area VWPs indicate weak low-level winds gradually strengthen with
height to around 40-50+ kt at mid/upper levels. This should support
some threat for supercells, although there may also be a tendency
for convection to form into small bowing clusters. As low-level
lapse rates steepen with diurnal heating over the next few hours,
the threat for damaging winds should likewise slowly increase. Large
hail will also be a threat with any supercells that can be
sustained. Current expectations are for the ongoing activity to
gradually strengthen as it spreads east-southeastward through the
early afternoon. Depending on convective trends, one or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches may eventually be needed.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7--p04iKlqYgIOjWJpswLa_9eEGktH1NFeR-44Rh8is9uiBm8fE3pyUGgChgd9E9ynxRcKrRb= C3WfOn3cbeXOmSllI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 31819047 32329042 32408949 32528765 32828681 32738533
32438356 31548316 30928321 30508353 30408428 30668697
31278956 31819047=20


=3D =3D =3D
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