ACUS11 KWNS 020246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020245=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-020445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern NM into northwest TX...the
TX Panhandle...and southwestern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020245Z - 020445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail may occur with elevated thunderstorms
this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this
evening to the north of a surface cold front. Some of this elevated
convection has shown sufficient intensity to support marginally
severe hail over the past hour or two. The presence of modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates evident on the 00Z sounding from
AMA, and sufficient moisture remaining above the shallow front, are contributing to upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Strengthening
westerly flow through through the cloud-bearing layer in mid/upper
levels is fostering 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, which is more
than sufficient for organized convection. Some of these elevated
thunderstorms have shown signs of being supercells, with an
associated threat for occasional severe hail. At this point, current expectations are for this activity to remain elevated and pose
mainly a threat for isolated hail for the next couple of hours. One
exception may be a robust supercell in western north TX (Baylor
County TX at 0245Z) that is currently moving slowly southeastward
towards the surface front/outflow boundary. If this supercell can
become surface based, it could pose a threat for severe/damaging
winds in addition to large hail. Regardless, current expectations
are for the overall severe threat to remain too isolated to justify
watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 06/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9sQtII7n4Ih8VwI3TfHnet1M4BxHuiNveLz_1DS3KW4RirbUutMkjclRNoOe2yOPCyBEfA7xe= E-MB4SAFeNTF5mWXNw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33440413 34180404 34850257 35210168 35350053 35199946
34629847 33839796 32999810 32749878 32909943 33390002
33640127 33290261 33150324 33220380 33440413=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 131303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131302=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...ArkLaTex region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

Valid 131302Z - 131430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and locally damaging gusts will
continue to spread east-southeast this morning. Local expansion of
WW 279 may be needed.

DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell near the Metroplex has dissipated,
but vigorous storms are persisting this morning closer to the
ArkLaTex region, within an unstable and favorably sheared
environment. Some weakening and veering of the low-level jet is
expected with time this morning, lending some uncertainty regarding
the longevity of severe potential into mid morning. However, with
downstream MUCAPE remaining above 2000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer
flow/shear expected to persist, somewhat organized cells/clusters
may continue southeastward with a hail and damaging wind risk, which
may require local expansion of WW 279 in the short term as storms
move into a larger portion of southern AR and northern LA. The need
for additional downstream watch issuance later this morning remains
uncertain, but will be possible if organized storms persist over the
next 2-3 hours.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9GpZv0MIzXMxgz6_QrejvcULZnHlaVQjl9PckmhkVZbv689_MIyC9psEYMyjelk-PiYitwW57= DmisPbaFvAvR6NvmjQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31949342 32279512 32769606 33399651 34039634 33979613
34179383 33919299 33309157 32299136 31889152 31669204
31719264 31949342=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)