ACUS11 KWNS 012324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012324=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois and Indiana into
western Tennessee/Kentucky and southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012324Z - 020100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and or hail will be possible
with semi-organized storms this evening. A weather watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Across much of the lower OH/central MS River Valleys,
several semi-organized clusters of thunderstorms may pose a
localized risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail
this evening. The lack of greater vertical shear (Bulk shear less
than 25 kt) and diurnal heating being the predominate driver, storm organization is expected to remain minimal. However, any clustering
of stronger multi-cell updrafts may produce isolated damaging
outflow winds and or small hail. The risk for isolated severe
weather should continue for another couple of hours before a gradual
decrease in intensity is expected later this evening. Unless greater
storm organization appears imminent, a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Hart.. 06/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Oj7iXTGgG2vBjkUvKWkMyJ8loQqq19ujkzIx8SCcQ7k3lBCE7BMROP5MFslha0rR4-5jZgS7= 7BdWVweAHkvALojr3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON 36839049 37998886 39148679 39638560 39688506 39508483
39098489 38658523 38208568 37568688 37028773 36468826
35538888 34858943 34698993 34909025 35279047 35629059
36839049=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 130234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130233=20
TXZ000-130330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 278...

Valid 130233Z - 130330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues.

SUMMARY...Three supercells across portions of central into
north-central Texas may continue to pose a large hail risk beyond
03z/10 pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...Three supercells persist across parts of central into north-central TX this evening. The middle supercell over Mills
County has shown some recent intensification and better organization
as it tracks near the surface front. Meanwhile, the northern
left-mover and southern right-mover have been near steady state over
the past 30 minutes or so and may be producing large to very large
hail. Regional VWP data suggest some modest increase of a low-level
jet has occurred this evening and is likely supporting continued
organization of this activity.=20

This activity is expected to become elevated with time as
boundary-layer inhibition increases with loss of daytime heating.
But isolated large hail may continue to be concern in the short
term. Some tornado risk could still accompany the middle supercell
in the vicinity of the surface boundary where low-level shear in
maximized, but this too is expected to be short lived given
increasing low-level inhibition this evening. Given trends, ongoing
watch may need to be extended or, a new, small severe thunderstorm
watch is being considered.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__jC_QYVPIT2Rpq0t_pUIxjbINwlcOow_7on8VNKDaCWQjXrH7OEIHsR9nEhMUyHes1RD55CM= MYKeiph4RjU5D60zhE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 32359838 32579791 32459731 32199712 31659697 31089722
31079732 30639844 30499888 30499921 30829923 31389903
31999865 32359838=20


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