ACUS11 KWNS 012304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012304=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Ohio into central
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

Valid 012304Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
continues.

SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe storms should persist
into this evening ahead of low-amplitude shortwave trough. Damaging
wind gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...As of 2255Z, regional radar analysis showed several
cluster of storms ongoing across WW301. The primary severe risk
appears to be located across the western half of the watch with a
more organized linear cluster developing across eastern OH into
western PA. As deeper ascent and stronger flow aloft from the
approaching shortwave move overhead, additional organization of the
line appears possible this evening. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE) ahead of the storms and increasing effective shear
(30-35 kt) should continue to support the cluster of storms as they
move eastward into west-central PA. The predominately linear mode
should favor a risk for damaging wind gusts, though some severe hail
will also be possible given favorable buoyancy for strong updrafts.

Farther to the west, several semi-organized clusters within central
OH may pose a localized risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
isolated hail this evening. Displaced from the stronger
shear/forcing, storm organization should remain limited, driven
largely by diurnal heating. Prior to nocturnal stabilization,
isolated severe chances may persist before a gradual decrease in
intensity expected later this evening.

..Lyons.. 06/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5F8ndwR97E6R4e8xMaadPdfcq8ISsfzW16tXBjzfh2WGitasC3KS1GVZy9MOayLLwa2oJel0d= ESTVbXbgtAqe61lWU8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 39908474 40348363 40788224 41278116 41718062 41838013
41767940 41627888 41307846 40857845 40657880 40217947
39968035 39818119 39758182 39698228 39448375 39438442
39538480 39908474=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 130050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130049=20
TXZ000-130215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 278...

Valid 130049Z - 130215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado risk will continue for another couple of hours
across central TX.

DISCUSSION...Three supercells are ongoing this evening across
central TX in the vicinity of a stalled front/outflow boundary.
Strong instability (greater than 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective
shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will continue to support
organized supercells capable of large hail. In the low-levels, SRH
values are maximized closer to the surface boundary where winds are
more easterly. STP value also are greater near the boundary. This is
where greatest tornado potential is expected within the next 1-2
hours if a cell can become established along the boundary. While
supercells moving more to the right of the boundary may still pose a
tornado risk, low-level shear is weaker with southward extent. Cell
developing southeastward may approach the southern edge of Tornado
Watch 278, or even move just outside the watch. However, severe
potential is expected to wane with southward extent into the EWX CWA
and a downstream watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WfE9EFiQydtaR5nusCf-62YPTVCeA7ZFtjqSBw9HwCbx3x5AuNCE-J4bLe2woDaOqrSju2XW= AUlyciz_fEUIdPL3gM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31309976 31499974 31839942 32069892 32129843 32059769
31769725 31509710 30739715 30609790 30619875 30939940
31309976=20


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