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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1005

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 01, 2022 22:19:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 012219
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012218=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-012345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1005
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0518 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM and west TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302...

    Valid 012218Z - 012345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will
    continue as thunderstorms spread slowly eastward this evening. Some
    of the large hail may be 2+ inches in diameter.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have formed over the past few hours
    in a low-level upslope flow regime across parts of far southeastern
    NM and west TX. The northern extent of the appreciable severe risk
    will be sharply limited by a cold front. Large hail should remain
    the primary threat with these supercells in the short term, as steep
    mid-level lapse rates noted on the 19Z sounding from MAF and
    1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE support robust updrafts. Even though
    low-level flow remains weak at the moment, around 30-40 kt of
    deep-layer shear is expected to remain favorable for continued
    convective organization as these supercells move slowly eastward
    across parts of west TX this evening. Given the degree of buoyancy
    available and organized structures currently shown on radar, some of
    these supercells should be capable of producing very large hail of 2
    to 3 inches in diameter. Some clustering/congealing of the ongoing
    activity may occur this evening as a southeasterly low-level jet
    modestly strengthens. If small clusters develop, then severe wind
    gusts would become increasingly probable, especially with a very
    well mixed boundary layer and large surface temperature/dewpoint
    spreads.

    ..Gleason.. 06/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ZR5bGa28k83zO4nh0Fm7Kyr7ciXsV4N4Ty_A8EoWI-NAx-B9Ncz5jyn85KyF78iOHRC-fOhK= 3A9Lh2QEV5w1mUHFXg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 29380418 30050475 31340500 31830497 32870470 32990369
    33210217 33210118 32600097 31100127 30300232 29690268
    29160285 28940321 29170381 29380418=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 12, 2023 23:11:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 122311
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122310=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1005
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0610 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

    Areas affected...southern Mississippi...southeast
    Louisiana...southwest Alabama...and the far western Tallahassee
    Panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277...

    Valid 122310Z - 130045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The large hail and damaging wind threat will persist for a
    few more hours.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues south along the central
    Gulf coast. This cluster has a history of some damaging wind gusts
    over the past 2 hours. The environment ahead of this cluster
    features 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 40 to 45 knots of
    effective shear. Downbursts have likely been mostly muted due to the
    very moist environment and a lack of significant evaporative
    cooling. However, this environment does support water loading and
    the potential for more intense downbursts with the stronger storm
    cores. In addition, some severe hail remains possible given the
    strong instability and the moderately strong shear across the
    region. Expect these storms to move into the Gulf of Mexico around
    0100Z which should be well timed with the watch expiration time.

    ..Bentley.. 06/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7kynOZppefIamQlskFJYIWscKBqIU5gqk1_jy3NcOdFSq2mQuZLmfH0B0s8nmXVM6Q4SSu9BQ= vkA5ujjsgjq9ohKUPE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 30869182 31588994 31688807 31218696 30558699 30208785
    30319168 30869182=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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