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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1002

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 01, 2022 19:29:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 011929
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011928=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-012100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1002
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast NM into west TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011928Z - 012100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later
    this afternoon into this evening. Very large hail and locally severe
    wind gusts are expected to the primary threats. Watch issuance is
    possible by 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating is underway from far southeast
    NM into west TX, south of an outflow-reinforced cold front
    approaching the area from the north. Cumulus is increasing across
    the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos, with recent attempts at
    convective initiation north of Marfa, TX. Continued heating and
    erosion of MLCINH will result in scattered thunderstorm development
    this afternoon. Initial activity may be focused over the higher
    terrain of west TX and southeast NM, with additional development
    near the southward-moving boundary.=20

    MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range and steep
    low/midlevel lapse rates will support vigorous updrafts as storms
    mature. While midlevel flow is rather weak, low-level southeasterly
    flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of
    30-35 kt, sufficient for organized storms and possibly a few
    supercells, given the strong instability. Very large hail is
    expected to be the initial primary threat, in addition to isolated
    downburst winds. Any sustained supercell may also pose a brief
    tornado risk, though relatively weak low-level flow will tend to
    limit this threat. Storm mergers may result in one or more clusters
    capable of producing outflow winds of 60-80 mph, though the lack of
    a substantial low-level jet will limit the potential for more
    organized upscale growth.=20

    Watch issuance is possible by 21Z across some portion of the MCD
    area in order to cover these threats.

    ..Dean/Kerr.. 06/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4sc7FchXure4TCYkjUD02mJ7EP3Fq7Xvp0GMUNGhMX33A0h9lpMb7hDcvvGNt1qG88voMbldV= i7Ft-ZGiZrdwVBwEQY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32460189 31030207 30550291 30280375 30400430 30660463
    31160480 32230476 32720458 33040352 33430206 33320185
    32460189=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 12, 2023 20:53:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 122053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122053=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1002
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO and northeastern NM

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 276...

    Valid 122053Z - 122230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 276
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts will remain
    possible with thunderstorms spreading eastward this afternoon/early
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has developed this afternoon across eastern
    CO and northeastern NM in a modest low-level upslope flow regime.
    Even though instability remains fairly limited, deep-layer shear of
    40+ kt will remain favorable for updraft organization, including
    isolated supercells. Large hail will remain the primary severe
    threat with the more discrete convection across northeastern NM in
    the short term. Thunderstorms across eastern CO have recently
    congealed into a small cluster, which may pose more of a strong to
    locally severe wind threat as it develops eastward. The eastern
    extent of appreciable severe potential should be constrained by
    persistent cloud cover across the western OK/TX Panhandles and
    western KS.

    ..Gleason.. 06/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_chi_JAbdpLALwclFligYaoozFX9UQFgMNANI0nUqbIyS0xiN7HvBp7ZndULu2_qQ0YzExIAD= 5DXuwaqi3IslB31330$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35410485 36010439 36590438 38200486 38970426 39310360
    39220231 38350221 37210246 36950290 35360315 35240403
    35410485=20


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