ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011858=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-012030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Much of the Lower Ohio Valley Region.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011858Z - 012030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few multicell storm clusters are possible this afternoon
and evening with a threat for damaging winds and marginally severe
hail. A watch appears unlikely, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop in an uncapped airmass
across the Lower Ohio Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates in the
region (5.5 to 6 C/km) is a primary limiting factor to more robust
updraft development in an environment with 1250 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(per SPC mesoanalysis). These storms are forming on the periphery of
the stronger mid-level flow with effective shear around 20 to 30
knots which could support some multicell clusters. However, the poor
lapse rate environment amid only marginally favorable shear should
limit the overall severe weather threat from this activity.=20

Therefore, a few strong to severe storms may occur, but the threat
is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a watch.

..Bentley/Kerr.. 06/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fEF79p4wRu5XhGKdYkTJD8P_uawVLrGnnKB1TrxnzQz_Oos4w3pjRrU7dtvZJ_g0o2eBd1dC= cW9G63v6Mc7ucSeoNg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON 36898930 38518792 40138515 40558409 39988258 38788382
36968713 36378842 36388948 36898930=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 122044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122043=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-122145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Louisiana into Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277...

Valid 122043Z - 122145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 277. Severe hail and damaging gusts remain possible into the
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts multiple
multicellular structures and supercells ahead of a surface cold
front over central LA into MS, where 50 dBZ echoes have exceeded 40
kft in some storm cores. Furthermore, MRMS MESH has depicted storms
with hail approaching 2 inches in diameter, with a couple of 1 inch
hail/wind damage reports also received. Given the heated, well-mixed
boundary layer (and associated 3500+ J/kg MLCAPE) preceding the
storms, supercell structures should persist into the evening hours
with a large hail/damaging gust threat.

..Squitieri.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ZcdGDe1To03or9kUVXeJK3acDkro_Nr-_OwqgGzUzEJzlQChCx9MrV9aVjEmcIE6KcCU0xXk= W75F8qjzry2_VzI4CY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31449356 31989211 32119107 32038948 31658906 31228905
30798946 30629045 30819200 30969297 31089348 31449356=20


=3D =3D =3D
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