ACUS11 KWNS 011819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011819=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-012015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Southeast OK...West-central into northeast AR...Far
western TN...MO Bootheel

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 011819Z - 012015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase this afternoon, with a threat
of hail and locally damaging wind. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway early this
afternoon near an outflow boundary that lies from southeast OK into
central and northeast AR. Strong heating and rich low-level moisture
are supporting moderate to locally strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg) along/south of the boundary, and thunderstorm
coverage is expected to increase with continued heating and the
potential influence of multiple MCVs that will be traversing the
region through the afternoon.=20

This area is generally south of the stronger midlevel flow, but
effective shear of 25-35 kt may support some modest storm
organization, especially with any cells that remain rooted near the
outflow boundary. Large hail and locally damaging wind are expected
to be the primary initial threats. Some upscale growth into clusters
is possible with time, which could lead to a somewhat greater
damaging-wind risk, but this potential remains uncertain due to
generally weak low-level flow.=20

The magnitude of the severe threat remains somewhat uncertain at
this time across the region, but watch issuance is possible if
short-term trends support a sufficient coverage of organized storms.

..Dean/Kerr.. 06/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!559vCkECb1L2tx8LrlY0bbTI2Yx0925wCproAOqemHMu9WaWGcrZwNGNxm2efqbm5t5CMOkEX= nnlll-IoZKkrSOgPdQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34029499 33979701 34539711 34819593 34899559 35339346
35529240 36389032 36459009 36928925 36308913 35498972
35398989 34779113 34189338 34029499=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 122013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122012=20
TXZ000-122215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 122012Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Very large hail (3+ inches) appears likely as
thunderstorms rapidly intensify this afternoon. Severe/damaging
winds and a couple of tornadoes may also occur. Watch issuance will
likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...A convectively reinforced outflow boundary/front has
stalled this afternoon across central TX. Strong heating has
occurred south of this boundary and east of a surface dryline. Ample instability is present across the warm sector, with MLCAPE forecast
to continue increasing into the 2500-4000 J/kg range in the next
couple of hours. Very strong deep-layer shear is also present over
this region, with 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear owing to
enhanced westerly mid-level flow. Supercells should quickly develop
no later than 22-23Z (5-6 pm CDT) near the surface triple point,
with an attendant threat for very large hail. Some of this very
large hail could be in excess of 3 inches in diameter due to the
very favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment. Due to
long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, some splitting of
supercells may occur, with left splits also posing a threat for very
large hail. Severe/damaging winds may also occur with convective
downdrafts. A narrow/focused corridor or tornado potential may also
exist near the stalled front/boundary layer, especially if any
supercells can remain anchored to the boundary as they move eastward
this evening as a low-level jet modestly strengthens. One or more
watches will likely be needed to address this increasing severe
threat through the afternoon.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_4MuQvKbsca7KTWMEzuhhXshSzbId3sdjHuxteKTOy7oe5ridLWQtMRC_9t6WItNCGv_jwiik= uUIojQTEzXGscGs4QY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 31810036 32050029 32509986 33329894 33369810 33079750
32469725 31699717 31229737 31099791 30999894 31039983
31430021 31810036=20


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