• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0998

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 01, 2022 12:22:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 011222
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011221=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-011415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0998
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0721 AM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Western OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011221Z - 011415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible as
    the thunderstorm cluster in the eastern TX continues eastward into
    western OK.

    DISCUSSION...Persistent warm-air advection has contributed to the
    development of thunderstorms across portions of the eastern TX
    Panhandle and western OK. Low-level stability remains in place, but
    steep mid-level lapse rates still support moderate buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg across the region.
    Mesoanalysis also shows an area of 7.5 to 8.0 deg C per km max lapse
    rates (in the 2-6 km layer) downstream of the ongoing storms.

    The thunderstorm moving through PPA currently appears to have a
    stronger cold pool, as evidenced by its most eastward progression
    over the last half hour or so. Expectation is for this storm to
    continue eastward, with the aforementioned buoyancy supporting storm persistence. While the buoyancy downstream should be sufficient for
    storm maintenance, intensification into a more organized/severe
    cluster will likely be tempered by the cloudy and cool conditions
    downstream. Even so, isolated hail and damaging wind gust may still
    occur and convective trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4JGt2sk2Q3C1jlgZmwJeilm_V7BFEMnHCmfq0jiuyL8ga7da8nZTR_EPy2U05lsv1m3mrFB-c= ybhPTImLQ9lBVEVjFI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35240138 36050104 36480020 36449932 35939864 35169843
    34709879 34589981 34740071 35240138=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 12, 2023 18:25:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 121825
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121825=20
    SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-122000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0998
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central Georgia into South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 121825Z - 122000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across central GA
    into SC this afternoon, with damaging gusts being the primary
    threat. A WW issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures continue to warm into the mid 80s
    F ahead of the cold front given ample diurnal heating. Given near-70
    F surface dewpoints in place, 1500+ J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE has
    developed across the warm sector in tandem with 30 kts of effective
    bulk shear/modestly elongated hodographs. Given poor mid-level lapse
    rates, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts appear to be the main
    threat with the strongest storms that can develop. The overall
    severe threat should remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is
    not currently anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!44muSrBhDjdyBL5CY79Gj_kz-jeZ6fprZAtc6mDew1oeSwt2zcBU1_mLNRkqxukKXYp2dI1RE= 4ObgMhNYLSOv-dWspQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 32628430 33218307 33798207 34818097 34858018 34517941
    34097894 33827889 33597897 33157926 32767976 32238064
    31798121 31298138 31168177 31268234 31528292 31688328
    31838371 32038410 32268440 32628430=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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