ACUS11 KWNS 010446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010445=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-010615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Areas affected...Texas South Plains into Southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299...

Valid 010445Z - 010615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across the TX
South Plains into southwestern Oklahoma for the next several hours.
Large hail and damaging winds remain likely with some of this
activity.

DISCUSSION...LLJ has increased across west-central TX into southwest
OK where values are now approaching 35kt. This increase in LLJ
appears to be partly responsible for maintenance of an elongated
corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms that stretches from the TX
South Plains into southwestern OK. Hail continues to be generated
with the more robust updrafts, especially the supercell structures
that remain embedded within the larger cluster. Additionally, strong
winds have been noted with some of this convection, most recently at
Vernon where 62kt was reported. While the overall movement to this
complex has been slowly south, new development is now occurring
across southwest OK with potentially new development into
south-central OK over the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 06/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tX7sAutRyX9auB3_wif692ojt4r1Yhzjml2h42wx5b3ML7E95dTN_SzzUTCBur__RfjGxP4w= FxOy3d5rpvmd6PIJ-0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34310193 34639968 35309805 34619750 33759946 33790197
34310193=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 121718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121717=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-121845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of south-central Virginia into eastern
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121717Z - 121845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing for portions of far
southern VA into eastern NC. Damaging gusts are expected to be the
main threat. A WW issuance is possible pending trends in greater
storm coverage.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating has allowed for modest boundary-layer deepening/mixing ahead of an approaching cold front, with
thunderstorms already initiating along the front in southwest VA and
along a confluence zone in far eastern NC. Surface
temperatures/dewpoints warming into the 80s/70s F are contributing
to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates.
Furthermore, the approach of the mid-level trough will support
strengthening mid-level flow and corresponding 30+ kts of effective
bulk shear/elongating hodographs in addition to deep-layer ascent.=20

A net increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected
through the afternoon. Multicellular structures and short line
segments should pose a damaging gust threat given 7-8 C/km low-level
lapse rates. Trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Xe3itICwXs8uawLOKmRRrVEShmNBwP3DYqS2X0KIf6dB6yGL5B-k7SAfoXxVMaLwFJ3pbXvM= CG7ERLIy3M0lgtBxso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34998080 36247934 37207877 37337853 37257813 37077784
36877770 36647750 36437675 36207621 35857608 35217641
34607714 34287791 34157838 34417907 34747972 34998080=20


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