• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0995

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 01, 2022 04:25:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 010424
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010424=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-010600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0995
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1124 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast KS...West-Central MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298...

    Valid 010424Z - 010600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue.

    DISCUSSION...Small MCS has evolved along the front over southeast KS
    late this evening. Precipitation shield is gradually expanding and
    it appears a sufficient cold pool may be forming that will allow
    this complex to propagate more efficiently downstream into
    west-central MO over the next few hours. Otherwise, moist, and
    adequately buoyant air mass extends along the frontal zone
    downstream across MO such that scattered strong, to occasionally
    severe thunderstorms remain possible. Large hail and gusty winds are
    the primary threats.

    ..Darrow.. 06/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_CsPfkE9CqjZWD9atep515iIREQm1_7HW8UV_Ww8ASQjvOm4kiPBwSA6Zc-D0EsoRDRwsHGVL= htD-6JxCdNU-oKOwOY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38199709 39169312 38009311 37019707 38199709=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 12, 2023 16:55:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 121655
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121655=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-121830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0995
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama and southwestern
    Georgia into the western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121655Z - 121830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
    southern AL/GA into the FL Panhandle behind the initial round of
    storms. Damaging gusts and large hail are possible with the stronger
    storms and a WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating is taking place behind an initial
    round of thunderstorms across portions of Southern AL and GA into
    the FL Panhandle. The initial round of storms has left an outflow
    boundary draped across the FL Panhandle, with a supercell meandering southeastward, just north of this boundary. Temperatures have
    already warmed well into the 80s F, away from the outflow. Given low
    to mid 70s F surface dewpoints, over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE is already in
    place. In addition, unseasonably strong mid to upper flow is
    contributing to 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear amid modestly
    curved hodographs, capable of supporting multicells and transient
    supercells this afternoon.=20

    Severe potential should continue along the residual outflow boundary
    and may increase this afternoon as more storms develop and interact
    with this boundary. Additional storms should also develop along a southward-sagging cold front and sea-breeze boundary. Damaging gusts
    and large hail are possible with any of the more mature storms that
    develop and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8VyAFAeNKePB-AxGeLCtyhDP1hHGdZk0vAcQPaa0L7iq_TutZooIUrtU3t7n4hjxqtwZIHQq6= xWVTX-MOoZb8fwAIUI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 29758509 30198576 30548622 30388752 30388821 30468828
    31128834 31478832 31788821 31998804 32018721 31988591
    32178468 32228406 32028342 31628296 31048272 30508260
    29838268 29638281 29668324 29958370 29918402 29758455
    29698495 29758509=20


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