ACUS11 KWNS 312253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312253=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-010030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Areas affected...Southern Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

Valid 312253Z - 010030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will persist across
ww297 this evening.

DISCUSSION...In the absence of any appreciable mid-level short-wave
trough, it appears frontal convergence and weak low-level warm
advection atop the boundary will be the primary forcing mechanisms
for convection this evening. While surface heating proved
instrumental in thunderstorm development across ww297 late this
afternoon, southerly 850mb flow is expected to increase across the
TX South Plains into northern OK later this evening. This should
contribute to some southward propagation, although the primary storm
motion will remain easterly around 20kt. Most robust updrafts are
producing severe hail and this is expected to continue for at least
the next several hours. With time, thunderstorms may spread/develop
across southeast/east-central KS along the nearly stationary
boundary that is draped across this region.

..Darrow.. 05/31/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!--owAuokBIrjIspFPTnLRtW60tZDO5z0ssK9uj3uTK6zO_PEOlOzV84IVdDjiicFFhbi2y00Y= wOml2UVpI9IkbLVoUg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34870149 37409734 35679733 33140150 34870149=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 121339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121338=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-121515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern OK and far northeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

Valid 121338Z - 121515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail should continue in the
short term. Downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell/small bow with a history of
producing large to very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter)
will continue to move quickly east-southeastward across southeastern
OK over the next couple of hours. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50+ kt)
is present owing to a seasonably strong mid/upper-level westerly
jet. The elevated instability/MUCAPE estimated by the latest
mesoanalysis gradually weakens with eastward extent into far
southeastern OK and northeast TX. Recent runs of the HRRR also
suggest a gradual weakening of this supercell with time. While an
isolated threat for large hail may continue in the short term (next
1-2 hours) with this robust thunderstorm, current expectations are
for the overall severe potential to lessen later this morning.
Therefore, downstream watch issuance is unlikely.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JrwXSpnjKM4Zc1NsLdwKxZaWn6LXzrW4r0w1yvh8nk11icfO7AmL9AkcKT6L_PxmHAVktDVc= dhBKtAc24hQWoOT5PM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34619857 34929806 34779669 34489564 33799510 33539541
33889749 34289908 34529916 34619857=20


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