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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0981

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 30, 2022 20:52:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 302052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302051=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-302245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0981
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

    Areas affected...eastern KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 302051Z - 302245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat across eastern Kansas is increasing this
    afternoon. Area is being monitored for possible watch issuance in
    the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Vertically developing cumulus are increasing along a
    sharp dryline draped across east-central KS this afternoon. Ahead of
    the boundary, surface dewpoints have increased into the mid/upper
    60s as temperatures have warmed into the 80s beneath modest midlevel
    lapse rates. This is resulting in MLCAPE values around 2000-2500
    J/kg. Furthermore, the 20z RAOB from TOP shows little remaining
    inhibition. While large-scale ascent will remain modest over the
    region, weak low-level confluence ahead of the boundary and
    continued heating should allow for a few thunderstorms in the next
    couple of hours. Current VWP data from KICT and KTWX show modest,
    but favorably curved low-level hodographs supporting rotation.
    Furthermore, effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will
    support supercells. Given aforementioned weak forcing, any storms
    that develop should remain discrete and have the potential for large
    hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. Convective trends
    will be monitored and a watch may be needed by 22-23z.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!57AOhd1chK39x7dUi4OlbmsNKCrRAOPzYBBgNLuVojPAEECVVPUbWonkSH9VvRd-7j6jimuU6= oiPrTxQXgHAvznjWoU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 38429754 39739637 39909616 39959597 39909574 39709549
    39349525 38929516 38289545 37729581 37229635 37179661
    36949740 36869805 37059824 37399817 38429754=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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