ACUS11 KWNS 301907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301906=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-302030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Areas affected...extreme eastern SD into southern/central MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20
Valid 301906Z - 302030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for strong tornadoes and widespread intense
gusts is increasing across extreme eastern South Dakota into
southern/central MN. A tornado watch will be needed in the next
hour.
DISCUSSION...A surface warm front over southern MN will continue to
lift northward through the afternoon. Dewpoints will increase into
the mid/upper 60s as this occurs, resulting in rapid destabilization
with northward extent over the next few hours. Recent visible
satellite imagery shows increasing/vertically developing cumulus
across portions of southern MN to the south of the warm front. A
recent RAOB near Tyler, MN indicated weakening surface-based and
MLCIN with very steep midlevel lapse rates in place. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 50 kt will support organized supercells,
while strong forcing may tend to favor bowing segments, and a mixed
convective mode is possible. Enlarged low-level hodographs evident
in regional RAOBs/VWPs and forecast soundings show 30-40 kt 0-1 km
shear amid enhanced low-level vorticity. This will support intense
rotation with any discrete or line-embedded supercells, and a couple
of significant tornadoes will be possible into early evening.=20
Hi-res operational CAMs guidance and the experiment Warn-on-Forecast
ensemble has been persistent in developing at least a couple of
discrete supercells ahead of linear convection. While convective evolution/storm mode remains somewhat unclear, the overall parameter
space will support storms capable of producing strong tornadoes and
widespread intense (greater than 75 mph) outflow winds. A higher-end
tornado watch will likely be needed within the hour.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!88alGEsx7LBXlMGxabP-LOsixmnjmRnbZYnpCAHiEkRBsq3-hkzf4dIas8hhAOInKp-60TUch= 4IMxxPBerQoMLJ5lpE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 43929375 43759432 43979529 44229600 44449684 44629702
45009704 45549681 46349635 46739595 47049507 47129442
47139404 47039361 46899322 46359288 45499285 44769289
44259340 43929375=20
=3D =3D =3D
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