• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0976

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 30, 2022 17:55:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 301755
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301755=20
    MNZ000-301900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0976
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

    Areas affected...central MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301755Z - 301900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger elevated thunderstorms could produce hail
    the next couple of hours across parts of central Minnesota. A watch
    is not expected for this activity.

    DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms has developed in an area of
    midlevel warm advection to the north of the surface warm front early
    this afternoon. This activity is elevated and within a corridor of
    weak instability but steep midlevel lapse rates. With continued
    heating and moistening, stronger destabilization will occur with
    northward extent across central MN into the late afternoon. However,
    this initial activity will remain elevated, posing mainly a threat
    for hail the next couple of hours. This threat will remain separate
    from more intense severe convection expected later this afternoon
    and into the evening. A watch is not expected for this short term,
    initial round of elevated thunderstorms.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90UVHU9wPBSN7D135nWKuWtg1hxmpVXxi-lZv-nrgnBIVnzI6OmRSWCxZGbjEJ4IHnIjf7_Zy= f5DBcm2PW-KzHxCqaU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 44299486 44329534 44619567 44799579 45179578 45429558
    45919503 46109459 46269420 46369391 46469351 46369321
    46099303 45919299 45599301 45279329 45259337 44659410
    44299486=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 11, 2023 21:37:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 112137
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112137=20
    TXZ000-112300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0976
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0437 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of the Trans Pecos

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112137Z - 112300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts possible
    through the evening across the Trans Pecos.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of updrafts have developed south of Fort
    Stockton along a sharp dryline. Updrafts have yet to consolidate,
    but are expected to eventually consolidate and organize into a
    strong supercell given a downstream environment of 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE
    and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support robust
    updrafts capable of some very large (2+") hail. Long/straight
    hodographs could favor some splitting supercells, especially early
    in the life cycle. Most guidance suggests storm coverage should
    remain isolated in this region. However, current radar/satellite
    trends suggest storm coverage may be higher than initially thought.
    At this time, the expectation for an isolated severe threat
    precludes the need for a watch, but if more scattered storm
    development appears imminent, a watch may need to be considered.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9oDlrCRYfGUwiJ458S87pevt_awqJ5f0AxL7gMJvDhOwefsTIMUMt191xwLUb4eCrllguonFs= 1HB0S7l7cA22o9Uwn8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29550272 30250290 30780287 31440263 31540140 31490062
    30920029 30030064 29450101 29260120 29390146 29540177
    29570227 29550272=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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