ACUS11 KWNS 301040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301040=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-301215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Areas affected...Western IA...Far East-Central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

Valid 301040Z - 301215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290
continues.

SUMMARY...There is a threat for isolated hail across western IA and
far east-central NE for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented band of thunderstorms recently
developed along the northern edge of the slightly better low to
mid-level moisture return. The steep mid-level lapse rates in place
support moderate buoyancy, evidenced by the presence of several
strong updrafts within the band. A southward-moving outflow boundary
may interact with this northward-moving band, leading to some
uncertainty regarding the overall duration and convective evolution
of these storms. Even so, given the moderate buoyancy and modest
deep-layer vertical shear, a few instances of severe hail are
possible within this band for the next hour or two.

..Mosier.. 05/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6fkjBKEBEayS5HN0qPoJQJYlldaM1i1yj-EojMLSuL70TXYXpq7zrFrqL_b8sWbiK9An1Cf8f= PUY-TXosjAeorWVQVQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41409648 42799593 43439537 43389412 42819395 40989488
40549623 41409648=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 111845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111844=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-111945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico and
the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 111844Z - 111945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for large hail and a tornado with thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Watch likely needed by around 20z.

DISCUSSION...Upslope flow across the high terrain in eastern New
Mexico and Colorado will be the focus of thunderstorm development
through the afternoon. Westerly flow will bring storms off the high
terrain into the plains through the late afternoon and evening.
Daytime heating should result in modest MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
amid favorable deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. Hodograph
structures are largely linear and elongated, with strong deep layer
flow and steep lapse rates. This environment will support high-based
supercell with the potential for large hail (with instances near 2
inches) and damaging winds. Weak low-level shear will limit tornado
potential but any discrete supercells that become established could
pose risk of a tornado as they track eastward into the better air
mass across far eastern Colorado/Oklahoma Panhandle. A watch will
likely be needed by around 20z.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FFMD70V5J6yZX6MVunQSWOfBD3S6qRCaq3IgYrjdlfy_q01bAh__z7Hn1d7cXJEt7qe8MM6h= 52eNdlyw175QIbZtBQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37850539 38530547 39990531 40180485 40010413 39440370
38970341 37820252 37410220 37060199 36650168 36510201
36480216 36470248 36440279 36520375 36630410 36660438
36880471 37140508 37350522 37850539=20


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