• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0969

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 30, 2022 04:26:11
    ACUS11 KWNS 300426
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300425=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-300600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0969
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1125 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

    Areas affected...Central Nebraska to Southwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 289...

    Valid 300425Z - 300600Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 289 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread northeast over the next several
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Long-lived MCS that developed over the central High
    Plains has progressed into north-central NE where an arcing band of
    severe has surged passed ANW in the last hour. Winds recently gusted
    to 40kt at VTN and this bow-type squall line is racing northeast at
    40kt. LLJ has increased to 65kt over central KS and flow is
    increasing across eastern NE into southwest MN. Additionally, this
    appears to be partly responsible for recent development along the
    wind shift from LXN to west of OFK. Given the strengthening
    low-level warm advection and well organized MCS, there is increasing
    confidence that severe will spread across the remainder of northeast NE/southeast SD into southwest MN. If current trends continue a new
    watch will likely be issued immediately downstream.

    ..Darrow.. 05/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4mPC1_s80JLLyB2RZrvcYNm7nGetkC0Ick1NQbCGuRLyofVbRdi7fHx9IFmeL40inU7LAK-ue= Zsy3udzWWUiaH0Jq1U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43160014 44609765 45159540 43789466 41669899 43160014=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 10, 2023 23:43:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 102343
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102342=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-110045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0969
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0642 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...northeast New
    Mexico...southwest Kansas...the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the
    far northern Texas Panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102342Z - 110045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Several supercells are expected to persist through the
    evening with a primary threat of large hail.

    DISCUSSION...A combination of left and right moving supercells have
    developed across southeast Colorado into the northern Texas
    Panhandle. Upslope flow is around 1 to 1.5 km deep in this area (per
    PUX VWP) which is likely responsible for the stronger storms than
    farther north across northeast Colorado. With MLCAPE around 1000
    J/kg and effective shear around 30 to 35 knots per SPC mesoanalysis,
    expect the supercell threat to persist through the evening. If these
    storms remain discrete/semi-discrete, they will likely weaken during
    the late evening as they move east of the low-level upslope flow.
    However, if storms can congeal into a cluster, they may persist
    further into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma during the
    overnight hours. Most guidance shows little to no low-level jet this
    evening which will be a significant limiting factor to robust
    upscale growth during the late evening hours. Therefore, a continued
    threat for isolated hail waning by late evening appears to be the
    most likely scenario.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4pSlvkIiZFoDVmn5E4y6ad8wHU0CbP0PHuc9lm8avHtgng-prBVPieDNyFVO17Q88vWvipKWx= RqcorumWP-qU6_snR4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37970402 38300391 38250236 37490118 36460087 36100115
    35980181 35910247 36050305 36230343 36980394 37970402=20


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