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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0967

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 30, 2022 01:32:18
    ACUS11 KWNS 300132
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300131=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-300300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0967
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0831 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

    Areas affected...Upper Red River Valley

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287...

    Valid 300131Z - 300300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues, primarily across the northern
    third of ww287.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered convection continues across the northern
    third of ww287, along/just north of a boundary draped across this
    region. Updrafts have struggled to deepen/mature across the warm
    sector whereas convection has more readily intensified along the
    cool side of the wind shift due to stronger low-level warm
    advection. ABR sounding this evening exhibited significant capping
    near 700mb and this supports the lack of warm-sector thunderstorms.
    Primary concern remains north of the front.

    ..Darrow.. 05/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5eBFELn0MoHhHoX05zsGBiNoZ1iRrgA5Sy65BLIa8wYXfXCadVqmlJom_27XrIWDi9k2Q1shi= s7qz22bQgqLL_vF5oA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 48429334 47769464 47819794 48389898 49099878 49069438
    48429334=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 10, 2023 22:56:18
    ACUS11 KWNS 102256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102255=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-110030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0967
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central and east Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262...

    Valid 102255Z - 110030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail to 2.5
    inches and severe gusts to 65 mph will remain possible the next few
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercell thunderstorms is ongoing along
    an outflow boundary draped across northern into eastern TX. This
    activity is expected to continue shifting east/southeast through the
    evening. Some potential for upscale development into a southeastward propagating bow is possible as storms interact over the next 1-2
    hours. However, this remains uncertain given a lack of stronger
    low-level jet development. Nevertheless, consolidating outflows amid
    steep low-level lapse rates may support a continued risk for
    damaging gusts into this evening. Effective shear magnitudes greater
    than 40 kt and strong instability also will continue to support
    organized, intense cells capable of large/very large hail for
    another few hours.

    An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm also may develop across
    north Texas to the north of the outflow boundary and near a weak
    surface low closer to the Red River, and just north of WW 262. The
    airmass across this area has recovered quite a bit with surface
    dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE approaching 2500-3000 J/kg. If
    a cell can develop and become sustained, an isolated risk of large
    hail would accompany this activity for an hour or two this evening.

    ..Leitman.. 06/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6deHO4buGqtXpJuWX70UNL4HcZHX2k9V2be4t7Oj7OfkbdWVFln_hUVlh9Zgj_Cud6nNk3hfE= QR5raqYYDCtx-KT_A0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 32889841 33069830 33509780 33689754 33769728 33739678
    33629639 33449630 33079623 32549607 32159557 31689450
    31469430 30929453 30639484 30719617 30799688 30989751
    31139810 31429834 32299841 32709843 32889841=20


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