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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0962

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 29, 2022 20:14:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 292014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292014=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-292145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0962
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

    Areas affected...Northwest MN into far eastern ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 292014Z - 292145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is possible this
    afternoon, with a threat of large hail and a couple of tornadoes.
    Watch issuance is likely by 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has recently been noted along a warm
    front in northwest MN, and further south along a weak surface trough
    toward west-central MN and far southeast ND. Despite rather
    extensive cloud cover, modest heating and steep midlevel lapse rates
    are supporting moderate instability near/south of the warm front,
    with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses.
    Weakening MLCINH and modest ascent within a weak warm-advection
    regime will support scattered thunderstorm development this
    afternoon.=20

    Modest midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt
    across the region, sufficient for some storm organization, with
    potential for a few stronger multicells or marginal supercells.
    Low-level flow/shear is not particularly strong, but will be locally
    maximized near the warm front. If any supercells can be sustained
    near the warm frontal zone across northwest MN, a tornado or two
    will be possible, in addition to large hail. Further south along the
    weak surface trough, the tornado threat will probably be somewhat
    less, but a somewhat greater hail threat may be present due to
    stronger instability.=20

    Watch issuance may be needed by 21Z, depending on observational
    trends regarding a sufficient coverage and magnitude of the severe
    threat.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!97YhtPy0UxPG2_wqNPhqWib-C10LcimOwOoenAUpd66mgFGYoBuze16LZ-vokwDZQlI_DaZq-= 4FPEh6BMB2KMoI5lIY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46289555 46269561 46059662 46109711 47069708 48619675
    48879590 48379531 46289555=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 10, 2023 03:04:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 100304
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100304=20
    TXZ000-100500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0962
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1004 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

    Areas affected...The Trans Pecos into the Edwards Plateau

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 100304Z - 100500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are expected to persist into
    the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms which developed in the vicinity of
    the Davis Mountains this afternoon have intensified as they moved
    east toward the better low-level moisture. Ascent associated with a
    shortwave trough aloft may help these storms persist as they
    continue east toward gradually increasing instability. Therefore,
    these storms may maintain occasional severe intensity for another
    few hours with a threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts.=20

    In addition, stronger storms over the Sierra del Burro mountains in
    Mexico could cross the Rio Grande near Del Rio and maintain severe intensity.=20

    While a few marginally severe storms are possible for the next few
    hours, a watch is not anticipated due to the relatively marginal
    intensity and limited duration of the threat.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Inf0QUSsOx6PxEYJOwk33E1GCVq2EBj2RHjv2d7wcq-04e7x4JP88Gr5f8LvQaJUU3sW2FIF= RK6nZhjTKlrk6Sv46I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29740208 30670207 31670081 31699995 31579938 31029885
    29969896 29899895 28839929 28229955 27890016 28380102
    29490188 29740208=20


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