ACUS11 KWNS 291240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291239=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-291415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Areas affected...Central/Southern MN...West-Central WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...

Valid 291239Z - 291415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and hail continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue within the warm-air
advection regime over the Upper Midwest. Strongest updrafts within
this regime are present within the cluster moving across southern
MN. A less buoyant air mass exists downstream of this cluster, and a
gradual diminishing trends is possible over the next hour or two.
However, there is still sufficient buoyancy for storm maintenance,
with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated large
hail.=20

Additional storm development is possible, particularly to the south
of the ongoing cluster mentioned above where warm-air advection is
the strongest.

..Mosier.. 05/29/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72OUu7ROWmDKYoDPUYQGA0H1A-vdiy_njOsoSmgbwrC_FKmrPUNEouMV74yus1SVODa7EI-rX= VPMjlguAafMu9ev_E8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43629374 44119433 44649426 45089382 45219298 45219231
44529200 43849263 43629374=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 092009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092008=20
FLZ000-092145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092008Z - 092145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and perhaps a marginally severe hail
report may occur across south Florida this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Deep convection has developed along the sea-breeze
convergence zone in the central Florida peninsula. Per mesoanalysis,
storms are in an environment of moderate to strong buoyancy (2000+
J/kg) and modest south-southwesterly deep-layer shear (30-40 kts
effective bulk shear), which may be enough for transient supercell
structures. A seasonably moist troposphere may result in high
precipitation loading and wet microbursts, yielding perhaps some
gusty winds. Additionally, despite seasonably poor midlevel lapse
rates, the deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginally severe
hail report. With time, expect storms to cluster and move offshore.
Due to the expected sparse report coverage, a watch is not
anticipated.

..Supinie/Thompson.. 06/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72zdUUtNXrgL-xGt3McIxV2q9rBoAJV3mD_ghV6Y8hCuwFVPyGqmHQqRpfxCSq7seQ-uYFaPk= d4k2n4r6duO1oy103I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 25818020 26088074 26438110 27008125 28028125 28318086
28278033 27618005 26977998 26277997 25898001 25818020=20


=3D =3D =3D
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