ACUS11 KWNS 290642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290641=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Areas affected...Eastern SD...Extreme Southeast ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

Valid 290641Z - 290815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated strong wind gusts and hail
continues.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an arc of elevated
thunderstorms from near ABR southeastward to about 20 miles east of
HON. A well-defined outflow boundary precedes these storms, with a
44 kt gust recently reported at HON and a 31 kt gust reported
farther south at MHE. The expectation is for this line to continue northeastward into the warm frontal zone extending from far
northeast SD southeastward across southern MN. Despite the elevated
character of this line, the relatively dry sub-cloud layer could
still support a few stronger gusts, although the gust potential
decreases with northeastward extent. Additionally, steep mid-level
lapse rates will support the potential for isolated hail as well.
The overall severe potential is expected to remain isolated, and an
additional downstream watch is not currently anticipated.

Farther south in far south-central SD, elevated storms have recently strengthened, potentially as a result of slightly stronger warm-air
advection. Steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to support the
potential for large hail with these storms.

..Mosier.. 05/29/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8w30wL0n3RegNu81WaPgpxuxLmp8z28zT5xTEz0L8IQ0XmhE67v-qg-reRiB_n7FBH_uoFy6z= GVSZ0Q7CZMPjzc3yPY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44769883 45679839 46209756 46059668 45429662 43039784
43189945 44769883=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 082014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082014=20
TXZ000-082145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

Valid 082014Z - 082145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail and damaging winds will continue
through the afternoon, especially across the southern portion of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260. Confidence is low for the need of a
downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...Convection-allowing models have struggled with the
convective evolution across this region today, reducing confidence
in the expected evolution over the next few hours. The
severe-hail-producing storm in Bexar County has recently weakened,
and the outflow continues to surge southward with some storms trying
to develop to the north of the outflow. Some CAMs have indicated
continued development along and behind the outflow on the west end
of the ongoing storm, but confidence in that scenario is decreasing. Nevertheless, an isolated severe hail and wind threat will continue,
and convective trends will be monitored for the need of a downstream
watch.

..Jirak/Grams.. 06/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8KO3GpwFA1FW67DE79dmbJf1kKpdatbpPPzyeCE9MUqhYuP5RYDDrOojwXaDzpjQQFhGiTHfO= p4PwQN2omaNVd_OMaU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29269878 29679855 29679823 29859782 29749752 29599726
29049685 28719687 28319756 28299810 28339842 28749864
29269878=20


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