This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1646945246-112669-13211
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 102047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102046=20
FLZ000-102145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

Areas affected...FL Space Coast

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41...

Valid 102046Z - 102145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #41 appears
to be focusing near Cape Canaveral over the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a storm with weak supercell characteristics over Orange County to the immediate north of an
outflow boundary. Strong directional shear due to easterlies at the
surface veering to south-southwesterly at 1 km is acting to augment
the hodograph. A hail/wind threat could accompany this storm if it
is maintained as it moves east of the Cape over the next hour.=20
Farther west, a decaying squall line over the greater Tampa Bay area
will likely continue to signal a decrease in the severe risk for
much of west-central FL. The remaining threat for strong storm
development may depend on storms developing over east-central FL
ahead of the outflow from the squall line.

..Smith.. 03/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tKatvJvXKr63DTGsY_EPdsN3T_8mNszPSL6zghL0NJY2PZ8AM5NljUKJx3Pc6tQ7ksHNGW81$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 28038144 28538104 28708027 27708006 27518098 27708137
28038144=20



------------=_1646945246-112669-13211
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1646945246-112669-13211--

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 030110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030109=20
TXZ000-030315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56...

Valid 030109Z - 030315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for WW 56. A line of severe thunderstorms, as well as a few semi-discrete cells on the southern
periphery, is advancing eastward and will pose a threat for damaging
winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado in the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms has consolidated along
the cold front in WW 56 and is advancing quickly eastward. 70+ mph
radial winds are currently sampled around 1 km AGL from KGRK,
supporting damaging severe wind gusts at the surface. Surface
objective analysis reveals dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s
ahead of the convection, yielding MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg
amidst 70-80 kt bulk shear. Some MLCIN is already present, which is
expected to increase during the next few hours due to warm advection
around 850 mb. This may temper the overall severe threat somewhat in
a few hours. Prior to that point though, low-level shear is expected
to steadily improve as a low-level jet strengthens. VWPs at
KGRK/KEWX currently depict 20+ kts of 0-1-km shear, supporting the
development of locally stronger, quasi-supercellular structures
within the line and associated hazards. As such, the threat
continues across WW 56 for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two for the next couple of hours. Convective
trends will continue to be monitored for possible WW issuance
downstream.

..Flournoy.. 03/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7OiLqRwOob5GgcDNiqH8CqXu_VPpEK02rRmHYVPi3C4VnGwu-P0Ux_j9iASXmpIKfyK1fVmVO= Zy4gB2djf4fP5axPnw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 29799834 30159807 30409747 30469692 30409645 30099607
29619633 29179700 29059757 29219838 29799834=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 142036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142036=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...portions of Indiana and western Ohio and far
southern Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 142036Z - 142230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Afternoon satellite imagery shows rapid air mass recovery
is ongoing across parts of IN and western OH. New storm development
over north-central IL may expand eastward into IN and OH/MI, though
this is uncertain. Supercells with all hazards are possible and a
new WW is possible in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Across parts of IN and OH the air mass in the wake of
an early day MCS is rapidly recovering. With ample diurnal heating,
surface temperatures have warmed into the low 70s F with surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Several modified
outflow/differential heating boundaries are present supporting ample
mesoscale lift for storm initiation within the destabilizing air
mass. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed
with 50-60 kt of effective shear. Storm organization (should
development continue) into supercells or short bowing segments is
probable. Mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C and the strong vertical
shear will favor large hail (especially with rotating updrafts),
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes.

However, confidence in the development and the timing of robust
storm development is modest given the air mass resides in the cold
pool of the earlier MCS. Stable wave clouds and the relatively
limited depth of boundary-layer CU are noted over much of IN, while
more robust vertical development is confined to the differential
heating axis/modified outflow. Forecaster experience suggests storms
may struggle to become established initially with broad, albeit
weak, synoptic decent likely ongoing behind the former MCS. Still,
numerous CAM solutions and ongoing convection upstream over eastern
MO and IL suggests storm development is possible. Stronger, more
established convection over eastern MO may also move into
southern/central IN later this afternoon/evening. Given the
environment with expanding hodographs and favorable buoyancy this
evening, these storms would pose a risk for all hazards.

With confidence in the evolution in mind, convective trends are
being monitored for a possible watch of portions of IN and western
OH in the next couple of hours.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-y0gVB6hs8cqIlRDyzs94CesGSE17fla5K5swBQY7SsMOAV7XfdSHtdg24ckYM5e7yY6w6GW8= E12-G62LqQAdNSPi9c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...
ILX...

LAT...LON 38348725 38348746 38308772 38458773 39038760 40298756
40768753 41478705 41748636 41868487 41758388 41718322
41438297 41058298 40698319 39518477 38798636 38348725=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)