• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0952

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 29, 2022 00:52:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 290051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290051=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-290145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0952
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0751 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central and southern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...

    Valid 290051Z - 290145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may drift east of WW281 and WW283
    into portions of central and southern SD later this evening.
    Damaging winds and perhaps some isolated hail will remain possible.
    A weather Watch is being considered.

    DISCUSSION...Evening radar imagery showed scattered strong/severe
    thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southern SD and
    north-central NE. Over the next couple of hours, these storms should
    move northeastward toward the eastern border of WW281 and WW283 into
    portions of central and southern SD. SPC mesoanalysis show
    sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) south of a
    quasi-stationary boundary to support the ongoing convection east of
    the current watches. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates (8-9
    C/km), the threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps, isolated hail
    may persist.

    Latest HRRR and WOFS guidance hint that the southern most portions
    of the cluster may remain the most organized. This is in step with
    current radar trends that have shown additional consolidation of
    storms across north-central and southern SD in the last hour. While
    confidence in the eastward extent of the severe risk is relatively
    low, enough risk may exist to warrant an additional weather watch
    downstream in the next hour.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4WjGclvP8_t_1wOGjTd92HZsc82jrB5DywpF5Ym_NhTKxzRp4nNaV4LRJlxSEKwR8kEoHSv-S= piUjv_C2IU9Uh5HoAk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42949880 42889900 42609940 42290032 42230115 42430147
    43190112 44180101 44580102 44720090 44800069 44920001
    44929943 44859908 44709877 44379869 43999864 43429862
    43219863 43059870 42949880=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 08, 2023 16:08:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 081608
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081608=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-081845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0952
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1108 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern Delaware...southern New
    Jersey...and eastern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 081608Z - 081845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe hail and damaging winds
    will increase over the next few hours across portions of southern
    New Jersey, southern Delaware, and eastern Virginia. The storms are
    expected to move off the coast by 4 p.m. EDT. A severe thunderstorm
    watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough rotating around the base of an
    upper-level closed low over Maine is helping to initiate
    thunderstorms across the area. Cool midlevel temperatures are
    contributing to relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and around 500
    J/kg of MLCAPE. Despite weak low-level flow, the DOX VWP is sampling
    nearly 40 knots of midlevel flow at midlevels, which will help with
    storm organization. The strongest storms will be capable of
    producing hail around 1 inch in diameter and damaging winds. As the
    shortwave trough progresses eastward the threat should move off the
    coast by 4 p.m. EDT. Given the marginal/isolated nature of the
    severe weather threat, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

    ..Jirak/Grams.. 06/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9mI_aFSunzGT_I51cCQnXZ5nBW_6kgxfCe9_yN45vOadA5R5EHKNUOZsPmQq0CrfZzFwa28lO= aD7cIqVL3OhWQv9hks$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 37377765 38097666 38577615 38787570 38777532 38667504
    38437499 38087506 37467554 37127586 36617590 36587647
    36877752 37377765=20


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