• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0949

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 28, 2022 22:24:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 282223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282223=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-290000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0949
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

    Areas affected...portions of western and central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 282223Z - 290000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Gradual storm development currently underway should result
    in high-based storms including a few supercells this evening.
    Damaging winds and hail are possible suggesting a weather watch may
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2215Z, afternoon visible imagery and radar data
    showed high-based cumulus towers/showers developing across parts of
    western and southwestern NE. Likely aided by ascent from a passing
    shortwave trough and strong surface heating, remaining MLCINH should
    erode resulting in the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms early this evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2500
    J/kg of MLCAPE has developed owing to very warm surface temperatures
    (80-90F) and dewpoints in the low 50s F. While likely high based,
    vertically veering wind profiles (EBWD of 40-50 kt) will support
    initial supercell structures capable of damaging hail and outflow
    winds. The enhanced downdraft potential from 0-3km lapse rates in
    excess of 9 C/km may also support some upscale growth into clusters
    or short bowing segments capable of significant wind gusts later
    this evening. Latest WOFS and hi-res HRRR guidance also suggest this possibility as storms track north and east across north-central NE.
    Given the potential for storm organization and the increasing severe
    risk, a weather watch is being considered.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/28/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_B-QVgK2dje9SL_J8dGGA5_BaEAT6K-q3BD3L1LBzakY9vcWmi9cpL8y0rxXlLpWQTXKVumL9= VauOpZd-_QqHPtVcjk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40160132 40920238 42000270 42770255 42980236 43050131
    43010044 42759989 42139958 40899987 40260071 40160132=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 07, 2023 22:26:53
    ACUS11 KWNS 072226
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072226=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0949
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0526 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...Northeast South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072226Z - 080100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat with a potential for hail and
    wind damage will continue for a few more hours across parts of the
    eastern Dakotas. The threat is expected to be too marginal for
    weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A north-to-south quasi-stationary front is currently
    located across the eastern Dakotas. Along and to the east of the
    boundary, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. This is
    contributing to a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where the
    RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/Kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis, with a couple
    severe storms located to the west of Fargo, North Dakota. The Grand
    Forks, North Dakota WSR-88D VWP suggests 0-6 km shear is near 30
    knots. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates near 8.0 C/km
    will continue to support an isolated severe threat early this
    evening. Although most of the storms will remain multicellular, an
    isolated supercell with large hail will be possible. A few strong
    wind gusts may also occur. The threat is expected to persist for a
    couple more hours.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xKQMDZCun636dfNzq2aZboJZQVoLoUHP5GTBmtjaleVi3xixxgliNVn6B1AwP-24Owg4JnXm= EzgwJIncAsu-ESi2PM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47679776 47599839 47379869 46879884 45219826 44149798
    43899753 43879719 44189655 44869643 46099653 46959658
    47589693 47679776=20


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