ACUS11 KWNS 282223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282223=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-290000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Areas affected...portions of western and central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 282223Z - 290000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Gradual storm development currently underway should result
in high-based storms including a few supercells this evening.
Damaging winds and hail are possible suggesting a weather watch may
be needed.
DISCUSSION...As of 2215Z, afternoon visible imagery and radar data
showed high-based cumulus towers/showers developing across parts of
western and southwestern NE. Likely aided by ascent from a passing
shortwave trough and strong surface heating, remaining MLCINH should
erode resulting in the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms early this evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE has developed owing to very warm surface temperatures
(80-90F) and dewpoints in the low 50s F. While likely high based,
vertically veering wind profiles (EBWD of 40-50 kt) will support
initial supercell structures capable of damaging hail and outflow
winds. The enhanced downdraft potential from 0-3km lapse rates in
excess of 9 C/km may also support some upscale growth into clusters
or short bowing segments capable of significant wind gusts later
this evening. Latest WOFS and hi-res HRRR guidance also suggest this possibility as storms track north and east across north-central NE.
Given the potential for storm organization and the increasing severe
risk, a weather watch is being considered.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/28/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_B-QVgK2dje9SL_J8dGGA5_BaEAT6K-q3BD3L1LBzakY9vcWmi9cpL8y0rxXlLpWQTXKVumL9= VauOpZd-_QqHPtVcjk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40160132 40920238 42000270 42770255 42980236 43050131
43010044 42759989 42139958 40899987 40260071 40160132=20
=3D =3D =3D
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