• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0942

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 27, 2022 20:52:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 272052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272052=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-272215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0942
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota and
    far northwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272052Z - 272215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells are expected to develop
    with primarily a damaging wind threat.

    DISCUSSION...Deep-mixing has developed across northeast Wyoming with temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s and dewpoints generally
    in the 30s to low 40s. SPC mesoanalysis indicates inhibition has
    recently eroded across portions of this area, and towering cumulus
    over the higher terrain shows some observational evidence of this.
    Expect some storms to form in this region in the next 1 to 2 hours
    as the boundary layer continues to destabilize and ascent approaches
    from the west. Instability should remain limited due to the lack of
    moisture, but shear is strong enough for supercells. Some large hail
    may be possible, but will likely not be the primary hazard due to
    the limited instability. Severe wind gusts will likely be the
    greatest threat due to the deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer and the
    propensity for evaporatively cooled downdrafts.=20

    The need for a watch will be related to storm coverage/intensity
    which will be monitored into the evening.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 05/27/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!842N07UgiiQAn-ti4UZ0HHFQekxrrJl4nABaxjtI1nso5ksPUrgCdHhmsJ6VJ6yyYkph5e1Vr= 3rWuCQJGEraoGooOu0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 42530615 43200655 44310658 44950606 45170451 45070340
    43970263 43010290 42480404 42430515 42530615=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 06, 2023 19:13:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 061913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061912=20
    UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-062115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0942
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern California...north and central Nevada...and western Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061912Z - 062115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds through the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been noted across portions
    of northern California, north-central Nevada, and northern Utah in
    the last hour. Temperatures have warmed quickly with little cloud
    cover through the morning. Modifying the 12z soundings from LKN and
    SLC produces a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep lapse rates
    through the profile. Surface objective analysis indicates MLCAPE
    around 500 J/kg amid modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts. This
    environment will favor multi-cell clusters, with potential for a few
    instances of severe wind and hail. Given the lack of deeper
    moisture, the spatial extent of this threat will likely remain too
    small for watch issuance.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!494I5DuS8acNzXDWEc6BYMxf_TzfGBZjoEx5vNAG96_WwRRgMTspuRXMTvfRBGnw1Zs8VW_50= gJeil_vsYtXG1zPefc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV...HNX...STO...

    LAT...LON 39242097 39812079 40511994 41091875 41611778 41831654
    42161425 42121293 41811223 41551200 40891152 40231159
    39821181 39481204 39371234 39571354 39571492 39391630
    39231703 38851775 38241871 38201878 38051898 37981927
    37931949 38122012 39242097=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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