ACUS11 KWNS 272052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272052=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-272215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota and
far northwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 272052Z - 272215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells are expected to develop
with primarily a damaging wind threat.
DISCUSSION...Deep-mixing has developed across northeast Wyoming with temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s and dewpoints generally
in the 30s to low 40s. SPC mesoanalysis indicates inhibition has
recently eroded across portions of this area, and towering cumulus
over the higher terrain shows some observational evidence of this.
Expect some storms to form in this region in the next 1 to 2 hours
as the boundary layer continues to destabilize and ascent approaches
from the west. Instability should remain limited due to the lack of
moisture, but shear is strong enough for supercells. Some large hail
may be possible, but will likely not be the primary hazard due to
the limited instability. Severe wind gusts will likely be the
greatest threat due to the deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer and the
propensity for evaporatively cooled downdrafts.=20
The need for a watch will be related to storm coverage/intensity
which will be monitored into the evening.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 05/27/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!842N07UgiiQAn-ti4UZ0HHFQekxrrJl4nABaxjtI1nso5ksPUrgCdHhmsJ6VJ6yyYkph5e1Vr= 3rWuCQJGEraoGooOu0$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 42530615 43200655 44310658 44950606 45170451 45070340
43970263 43010290 42480404 42430515 42530615=20
=3D =3D =3D
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