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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0940

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 27, 2022 19:39:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 271939
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271938=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-272115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0940
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

    Areas affected...Much of West Virginia...western Virginia...and far
    northern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271938Z - 272115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe weather threat will persist through the
    afternoon and early evening across portions of West Virginia.
    Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado are the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...An arcing band of showers/stratiform rain stabilized
    much of West Virginia this morning. However, in it's wake, it has
    destabilized rather quickly with an expanding cumulus field apparent
    on visible satellite. In addition, a mini supercell has developed
    near the West Virginia/Kentucky border. Do not expect a widespread
    severe weather threat due to the limited instability and lack of
    stronger flow in the low-levels. However, shear and instability
    appear sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for
    a stronger storm or two which could be capable of damaging wind
    gusts. The VWP derived hodograph from RLX is relatively straight in
    the low-levels which should limit the overall tornado threat, but it
    cannot be ruled out given the ambient vorticity beneath the
    upper-low and the potential for supercell structures.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 05/27/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!81VcIxykLs8UE1rvxD9H6kdJ1UsN5h3hMZh-r22lqApKt7utM76uBzggqGFKqAhSVksWx-m0Q= hx65vq8ZsUk1moPlfY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

    LAT...LON 37948248 38618217 39248159 39148033 38447933 37567898
    36637963 36338079 36418175 37118182 37328195 37948248=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 05, 2023 23:44:10
    ACUS11 KWNS 052344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052343=20
    CAZ000-060115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0940
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0643 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central California

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052343Z - 060115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail may accompany
    the stronger storms into this evening. The severe threat should
    remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in number and
    intensity over the past 1-2 hours, with NLDN data showing an
    increase of lightning flashes along the southern Sierra, and MRMS
    mosaic radar data showing 30 DBZ cores exceeding 45 kft with some of
    the storms. RAP forecast soundings depict tall/thin CAPE profiles,
    with significant amounts of convective inhibition. Widespread 9+
    C/km mid-level lapse rates and speed-shear-driven elongated
    hodographs suggest that some cells could become organized, but these
    storms would be confined to the higher terrain, with the potential
    for producing at least brief bouts of marginally severe hail and
    perhaps a relatively more copious amount of smaller stones.
    Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW
    issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rH7LoYBS6u0XcYXbF-pgwkwHTsBIPhly4vKYK44R_1CWmOC14Zsyh1s4gvZS_mF8Efb5_XII= U11eqkT61OJ9JUqxOE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO...

    LAT...LON 36631967 37542018 38392042 38672026 38341972 37581903
    36871863 36571869 36421933 36631967=20


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