ACUS11 KWNS 271821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271821=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Areas affected...Eastern SC into central NC and southern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271821Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm redevelopment is possible this afternoon,
with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection, storms have
redeveloped across northeast SC this afternoon, with building
cumulus noted elsewhere across eastern SC into central NC. Moderate
midlevel flow and deep-layer shear still remains over the area, as
MLCAPE recovers into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Some organized
cells/clusters are possible as storms mature through the afternoon.
Locally damaging wind will likely be the primary threat, though
marginal hail cannot be ruled out with any sustained discrete
storms. Low-level flow is generally not as strong as this morning,
though favorable low-level moisture and modest low-level shear may
support a brief tornado threat as well. Watch issuance will be
possible this afternoon, if observational trends support the threat
of multiple severe storms.

..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_A_Gtoj4V3SsVCUHj390kjtp8lHt88JGv8tfnaUZKDh5TQKMFL47uD_njSnGK6OsL8A7GkGMx= VrEgIPzFhzBj4iA6nU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 32938049 34438000 35347956 36147922 36837876 36967793
36927738 36187748 34957789 34307842 33407932 32777984
32578019 32938049=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 051958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051957=20
MTZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

Areas affected...Parts of west-central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051957Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and localized
strong/severe gusts will be possible through the remainder of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms have recently
developed to the west and north of Lewistown, MT, and also north of
Havre. This activity is being supported by a compact mid/upper-level
low over ID, and additional thunderstorm development is expected
through the remainder of the afternoon.=20

The strongest heating has occurred across west-central MT, where
MLCAPE has increased to above 1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses.
This region also has somewhat stronger deep-layer shear (compared to
areas to the west), aided by modestly enhanced southerly midlevel
flow to the east of the mid/upper-level low. A few strong multicells
and perhaps a marginal supercell will be possible, with an attendant
threat of isolated hail and localized strong/severe gusts. With the
threat expected to remain rather marginal and isolated, watch
issuance is not expected.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bSCZXXp_Z2uM05rIBDn5IsulPvmLUoi6qQe1cu3KbOcjPgaryg2o0P0bf9MMctqurk6jUkWz= d-_K4rrsshJ79yGQk4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...

LAT...LON 48990944 47340918 46520942 46421200 48631177 49011160
48971118 48990944=20


=3D =3D =3D
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