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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0932

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 27, 2022 09:00:53
    ACUS11 KWNS 270900
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270900=20
    SCZ000-NCZ000-271100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0932
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

    Areas affected...Central/Southern SC...Central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 270900Z - 271100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
    perhaps a brief tornado are possible this morning across the
    Carolinas.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms
    increasing in coverage ahead of a lobe of ascent rounding the upper
    low centered back west over the Lower OH Valley. The air mass
    preceding this ascent is characterized by temperatures and dewpoints
    in the low 70s and moderate buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimated
    MLCAPE ranges from 500 to 1000 J/kg across the region. Low-level
    winds are rather weak, but moderate low to mid-level flow is still
    strong enough to support effective bulk shear around 40-45 kt. This
    vertical shear is sufficient for organized updrafts, and a few
    stronger/more organized storms are possible this morning. Primary
    threat with any stronger storms would be damaging wind gusts,
    although a brief tornado may occur as well. Overall severe coverage
    will likely be limited, but convective trends will be monitored
    closely.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/27/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!83b2JlgRW9OJrBhItO4k_U1R_kg7TjUxqEc_P8i9mNRwKLJbg22ry3AAOmqfp5-rPm54rJ5Yl= bO8CpJwEfumWozD_mk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 32718071 33148120 35128131 35928089 36167982 35737941
    35087920 34017904 33317936 32808010 32718071=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 03, 2023 20:22:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 032022
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032021=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-032215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0932
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032021Z - 032215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginal risk for severe hail and damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing along the high terrain and
    along and ahead of the dry line across western Texas/eastern New
    Mexico. Storms have largely been located to the west of the higher
    surface dew points as the dry line mixes eastward. Steep lapse rates
    throughout the profile, in combination with robust MLCAPE around
    1500-3000 J/kg (highest across far southern Texas near the Mexico
    border), will promote quick development of storms, a few of which
    may become more organized and strengthen as storm scale interactions
    from terrain and outflow contribute to local surface vorticity.
    Additional storm development could lead to more upscale growth as
    storms begin to move along developing outflow. Potential for severe
    hail and damaging winds will remain possible through the afternoon.
    Overall, the best overlap of shear/thermodynamics continues to be
    located just to the south of the developing activity across portions
    of South-Central Texas, which may limit the spatial extent of the
    severe threat. This area will be monitored for changes but a watch
    is unlikely at this time.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Bch-yi-XkRq3Ri9Y9TGgCSKDzxxYO6au99d42BaYHeBSQBlRE8illIp-LV-7oovyjldox-tn= JYD6_DYCvTnLGs53X4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 32510498 33020520 33790519 34170492 34280436 34300369
    33840278 33370225 32430161 31930027 31549927 31349882
    30929862 30469886 30049920 29599945 29129986 29070046
    29090068 29320093 29640130 29780147 29790181 29810219
    29870231 29780241 29780262 29650274 29460282 29370287
    29210298 29040318 29050330 29150357 32510498=20


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