ACUS11 KWNS 270033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270032=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-270230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Areas affected...parts of the western Carolinas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275...

Valid 270032Z - 270230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat of damaging gusts or a weak/brief tornado
continues mainly over parts of west-central NC. The threat may
briefly cross into southwest Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to train north/northeast of Charlotte,
with little overall eastward progress to the line. The 00Z GSO
sounding indicates a moist but sufficiently unstable profile to
support a supercell threat as effective SRH is near 200 m2s2 and
nearly all in the 0-1 km layer. Objective analysis further indicates
200-250 m2/s2 along the VA/NC border which may support a brief/weak
tornado given MLCAPE only near 500 J/kg.

With the loss of heating, the severe threat is expected to wane over
the next 1-2 hours. As such, additional watches are not expected.

..Jewell/Grams.. 05/27/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-aCa-5yY7Q4eCEhNNt2O5RGqcG68HFtyTohCOfjTCzZ8icnOAeqGc2VGd6NNa502W5flnEy4= ZNstWn6xMLUCuxuuP0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34108218 35668138 36938080 37118028 36947996 36567978
35988002 34928070 34208130 34048160 34038198 34108218=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 031811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031811=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-032015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Areas affected...eastern Texas...far southern Oklahoma...and far
western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031811Z - 032015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and gusty winds through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been noted across eastern
Texas into southern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Daytime heating and dew
points in the mid 60s to low 70s have allowed air mass
destabilization, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern Texas
into western Louisiana and southern Arkansas analyzed through RAP
surface objective analysis. Deep layer flow is weak, resulting in
slow moving storms and very little shear in the background
environment. Given this regime, storms will generally pose a brief
severe risk and remain pulse in nature. Occasional gusty winds and
hail will be possible. Given the limited threat, a watch is not
being considered at this time.

..Thornton/Grams.. 06/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7o2akp9F0AZ0VQOt41cd-Bv_oTy4rdT5G2eze7LLoE-awtPlLmdSgqkyb_KfZX0mPPPuV7H8j= UpdgkYz-8T5d0qYazw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31119549 31379575 31989601 32749610 33529592 33899576
33969476 33819432 33149389 32149351 31559335 31169329
30689334 30029352 29829365 29739396 29789423 30089470
30239481 31119549=20


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