• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0930

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 26, 2022 23:03:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 262303
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262302=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-270030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0930
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0602 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central and western Indiana.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 262302Z - 270030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado will remain possible with
    thunderstorms this evening across parts of western and central IN.

    DISCUSSION...Evening WV imagery across the Midwest showed a well
    developed mid-level cyclone across parts of the Midwest and central
    MS Valley. To the east of this low, deep southerly flow was
    overspreading a weakly unstable airmass across western and central
    IN. SPC mesoanalysis shows modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE)
    has developed beneath the -15 C cold pocket near the mid-level
    cyclone, which was supporting several clusters of thunderstorms.
    This buoyancy, concentrated mostly in the low-levels (0-3km MLCAPE
    100-200 J/kg), ahead of the slow moving cold front across western IN
    will likely continue to support a few strong low-level updrafts this
    evening. With moderate vertical shear and bountiful vertical
    vorticity near the closed low/cold front, low-level parcel
    acceleration may enhance vorticity stretching potential to support a
    brief and weak supercell/landspout tornado through this evening.
    This threat is expected to be relatively brief before nocturnal
    cooling stabilizes the boundary layer. Given the expected limited
    threat, a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/26/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!62B-kAnkhNMQYt4ywDgfVe1L0QcmXu-VaIHLxFjMN0tlBcVE5-UP1wniOhch5sLUqkBGiR5FU= SqB7PEPYFT_tXbVXzM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 40578754 40658728 40488678 40238653 39928641 39278639
    38848654 38598670 38438689 38448710 38778727 38878724
    39328732 39838745 40168753 40578754=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 03, 2023 17:28:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 031728
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031727=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-031930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0930
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of PA...Eastern OH...Northern/eastern
    WV...Northern MD/VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031727Z - 031930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts and
    perhaps some hail will be possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating of a modestly moist
    environment has resulted in the development of weak to moderate
    buoyancy early this afternoon across parts of PA, with MLCAPE
    potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg with time as heating
    continues. A cold front is moving south/southwestward toward the
    region from parts of NY/New England, though little low-level
    convergence is evident in surface observations. Despite relatively
    weak large-scale ascent, cumulus has notably increased across parts
    of PA into far western MD, and additional heating/mixing will
    support scattered thunderstorm development with time this afternoon.

    A belt of somewhat stronger northerly midlevel flow associated with
    a mid/upper-level cyclone over New England is approaching the area
    from the north, though the strongest flow is likely located between
    any available 12Z soundings. Recent guidance suggests the strongest
    midlevel flow will likely be confined to the eastern part of the MCD
    area, where effective shear increasing to around 30 kt may support
    modestly organized southwestward-moving cells/clusters capable of
    locally damaging gusts and some hail. Farther west into western PA,
    storms will tend to be more disorganized within a weakly sheared
    environment, but sufficient buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates
    may support localized downbursts and small to briefly severe hail.=20

    With the potential for more organized convection likely confined to
    a smaller area across eastern PA/northern MD, and the magnitude of
    the threat expected to remain relatively limited, watch issuance is
    considered unlikely.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 06/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8_25emR8xtCX6xD72F35rA7VPASXBWJ00OeDyLiVeIbusrL5h8vJsONa0rhJMHtxOz36z0FJ= 225-C82Hwa8VFKXbMA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41128038 41377804 41567656 41427606 41167587 41057591
    39147661 39187826 38197961 38088009 39038090 39958101
    40658097 41128038=20


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