ACUS11 KWNS 261452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261452=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-261615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0923
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Areas affected...portions of western into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261452Z - 261615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected
through the late morning into early afternoon. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the main threats, though a tornado cannot be
ruled out. Storm coverage and intensity trends are being monitored
for the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...A stacked low across western MO continues to gradually
track eastward, with a cold front trailing the MO/IL border, where
convection continues to gradually deepen. Ahead of the cold front/
intensifying storms, at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints reside
beneath 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates (per 12Z ILX observed
sounding), contributing to over 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40 kts of
effective bulk shear is also present, mainly driven by tropospheric
speed shear given a unidirectional vertical wind profile. Any storms
that can mature would most likely be multicellular or
transient-supercellular.

Modifying the 12Z ILX observed sounding to current surface temperatures/dewpoints yields dense CAPE around 500 mb, where
temperatures are around -15C. As such, further surface
heating/generation of buoyancy may support large-hail producing
storms. The 14Z mesoanalysis also depicts nearly 200 J/kg CAPE and 7
C/km lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer, which suggests that further boundary-layer mixing will also favor strong/damaging gusts with the
more intense storms that manage to form. The very strong low-level
CAPE will enhance vorticity stretching potential and a
supercell/landspout hybrid tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
Nonetheless, buoyancy is expected to remain limited overall given
the relatively narrow warm sector, with overall severe coverage
still uncertain. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for
the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/26/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4aSuVdFqT227us7BB3vo3F4hODPsFGnPLjEB5-JVPmw7cL6dKm7-2Kx3I9wn4qtRko8XMrrB-= paRY7YiQg6AGe0VvMc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 38448930 38659003 38939032 39269055 39679087 39989121
40329152 40599164 41089096 40989026 40558947 39908888
39308867 38688875 38448930=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 022008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022008=20
TXZ000-022145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0923
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

Valid 022008Z - 022145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado or
two will spread eastward late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing at 20 UTC across parts
of the TX Panhandle and South Plains. The environment remains quite
favorable for organized storms, with preconvective MLCAPE of greater
than 2000 J/kg and increasing deep-layer shear noted on the KLBB
VWP. However, severe potential has been complicated by a messy storm
mode thus far this afternoon, with occasional embedded supercells
noted within a slowly propagating, outflow-driven storm cluster.
While a rather strong surface cold pool has developed, with
temperatures falling into the 50s F behind the gust front,
seasonably weak heating and low-level lapse rates across the warm
sector have limited the severe wind risk thus far. However, somewhat
stronger heating downstream into the eastern TX Panhandle and
northwest TX may eventually support a somewhat greater risk for
severe gusts with time.=20

Otherwise, any stronger embedded supercells within the ongoing
cluster will continue to pose a threat for hail, given the favorable instability and deep-layer shear in place. With weakening MLCINH
downstream, additional supercell development remains possible into
parts of northwest TX and the eastern TX Panhandle, as noted with
recent development across Collingsworth County near a
westward-moving outflow. Any sustained supercells could also pose a
threat for a tornado or two, especially where any favorable boundary interactions can occur.

..Dean.. 06/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9brRg2WhJFVv-HMqQaBb1jVnaJOFR_zn32hcNJGAgUQIHaHE9w35j1pKKgSwLXr_P37gql7WD= Ihs-AEWD1qI0EMREso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33610253 34960184 35630181 36410154 36420064 36410019
35010014 33810027 33600141 33550171 33610253=20


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