• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0915

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 25, 2022 19:35:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 251935
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251934=20
    ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-252100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0915
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

    Areas affected...northeast MS into northwest AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251934Z - 252100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Gusty winds and a brief spin-up could occur with
    convection over the next few hours. However, overall severe
    potential is expected to remain limited.

    DISCUSSION...A line of convection will continue to shift
    east/northeast across northeast MS and northwest AL the next few
    hours. This area has destabilized less than areas to the south as
    cloud cover has persisted much of the day. Modest effective shear
    and poor low and midlevel lapse rates amid weak instability will
    limit overall severe potential. While the KGWX VWP does show
    somewhat enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs, 0-3 km
    MLCAPE is fairly weak ahead of the line of convection. Some broad
    rotation has occasionally been noted, but weak low-level winds and
    modest low-level instability should also limit tornado potential.
    Overall, convection has not produced measured severe gusts through
    the day, with only minor wind damage reports received. Given the
    less favorable downstream environment, severe potential is expected
    to remain limited and a watch is not anticipated.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zVcavkAPjUF7rSVnnjcMsZpvsJKMzaplw4lMYSc21bpt9cAZJ78XSivAr2A80i25SH8PLA7-= UC64rlNcrlQl0M5eOc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33458902 34188923 34528919 34888899 34998831 35008783
    34898751 34338725 33888719 33408755 33158820 33078864
    33138881 33458902=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 01, 2023 20:36:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 012036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012036=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-012230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0915
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0336 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western OK...far south-central KS...and
    far northwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 012036Z - 012230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts
    will be possible this afternoon. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered storms are evolving over
    western Oklahoma this afternoon -- along the eastern edge of outflow
    from earlier convection over the TX Panhandle. Downstream, efficient
    diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (middle 60s surface
    dewpoints) is destabilizing inflow for this activity. While VWP data
    shows generally weak midlevel flow over the area, a veering
    low/midlevel winds profile combined with the destabilizing air mass
    could support a few loosely organized updrafts capable of sporadic
    marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts this
    afternoon. Any severe threat should remain too isolated for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6uh9_0dt47ixiR_p_PnxTVwJUFXDtVdUmMRiJc2YqV6gVUY15yjTQWcD73d5-F-rEnw0fhgr5= E34XkS2W40KoKnhQa8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33939975 34319968 34939946 36089931 37139921 37299884
    37269841 36979818 36439808 35609810 34669827 33769846
    33429867 33379914 33449937 33629958 33939975=20


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