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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0914

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 25, 2022 17:13:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 251713
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251712=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0914
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1212 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

    Areas affected...far southeast MS and soutwest AL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273...

    Valid 251712Z - 251845Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts or a brief spin-up continue to be
    possible across WW 273 and into far southeast MS and southwest AL.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of rotating/transient supercell structures
    have been noted recently to the northwest of Mobile near the
    southern MS/AL border. This activity is occurring along the gradient
    of stronger instability ahead of the east/northeast-advancing line
    of storms further west across MS and southeast LA. The VWP from KMOB
    indicates an enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodograph
    supporting continued periods of rotation within the semi-discrete
    cells. However, effective shear and low/midlevel lapse rates will
    remain modest, limiting overall severe/tornado potential.
    Nevertheless, strong 0-3 km MLCAPE amid low to mid 70s dewpoints
    could support a brief spin-up or strong gust with the semi-discrete
    storms ahead of the main convective line.=20

    Further west, the line of convection from central MS into southeast
    LA has occasionally produced gusts of 35-45 kt. This will likely
    continue with eastward extent across east-central MS and the
    remainder of WW 273. At this time, a downstream watch is not
    anticipated, but convective trends will continue to be monitored for
    increase in storm intensity/organization.

    ..Leitman.. 05/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7uU49x2RwgachaVXfBnSo722jWADLwy_HLRLScggIJrY6J6yMxrIln5JHmpcYMBJktW8bevr2= 2Ps-b0qDGD116fIY8U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30988767 31338780 31808803 32328829 32708864 32868885
    32988941 33008982 32879008 32399032 31879033 30969034
    30559027 30418994 30448960 30508894 30388790 30458775
    30638769 30988767=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 01, 2023 20:10:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 012010
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012010=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-012215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0914
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico into parts of west TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 012010Z - 012215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all
    hazards will likely increase during the next few hours, and a watch
    may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convective processing over the
    Texas South Plains, surface observations and visible satellite
    imagery show a remnant outflow boundary extending from southeastern
    New Mexico eastward into the Texas South Plains. Diurnal heating of
    a moist boundary layer in the vicinity of this boundary is yielding
    moderate surface-based instability this afternoon. Isolated
    convection is beginning to develop along the boundary, and this
    activity should continue to mature through the afternoon hours amid
    continued diurnal destabilization. Backed surface winds near the
    boundary beneath a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow
    will contribute to 40-50+ kt effective shear with modest low-level
    hodograph curvature near the recovering outflow boundary. This will
    support organized convection including supercells capable of large
    hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. A watch may be
    needed for parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7MgIugM-KBckTV9XWM_ivk_ISlmq9l9dgCkwRHQj_dhg0DVTmS9Abqys6swZ3BIPnjyzmAy09= plZnBf0-P4VJpvNMSQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33190043 33320026 33419991 33309963 32969961 32529970
    32270006 32180054 32080103 32050175 32080245 32150290
    32320319 32620358 32880375 33220384 33500378 33740356
    33810328 33660284 33440234 33310186 33050101 33060070
    33190043=20


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