ACUS11 KWNS 251424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251423=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-251600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...eastern/southeastern Louisiana into
southern/central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251423Z - 251600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts and a tornado or two will be
possible the remainder of the morning into the afternoon across
parts of far eastern/southeastern Louisiana into southern/central
Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms along a composite outflow and ahead of
a surface cold front will continue to shift east/northeast through
the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. Pockets of
heating ahead of the line and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s F is aiding in moderate destabilization this morning,
with MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg. However, effective shear
magnitudes are expected to remain modest through the day at around
30 kt. Furthermore, both low and midlevel lapse rates are expected
to remain weak. This will limit storm intensity overall, but the
parameter space will adequately support at least brief strong
embedded cells or bows along the line. The main hazard with this
activity will be strong gusts in the 40-50 kt range. Regional VWP
data also shows enlarged, curved low-level hodograph, which could
support rotation within the line or in cellular activity ahead of
the line. While low-level lapse rates are poor, 0-3 km MLCAPE
greater than 100 J/kg and some enhanced low-level vorticity could
support a brief spin-up in more intense convection. Convective
trends will be monitored and a watch may be needed.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/25/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9IUYJqpM2lkKCWIHyVpuVVo7lRnKPaqKOagYMvlR5yxNaMbhBgcOtUvtKUbeHynbipsqrUkNp= PG2mT0oeOFuPFwbb_0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30909181 31709177 32519159 32909123 33139038 33108988
32998940 32668896 32308870 31878854 30578846 29608870
29078906 28978977 28959038 29049109 29319143 29729171
30639171 30909181=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 010617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010617=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-010945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Areas affected...far eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 010617Z - 010945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe storms capable of hail or wind
may linger near an outflow boundary from east-central New Mexico
into parts of the South Plains and Panhandle through about 09Z.

DISCUSSION...A stable air mass currently exists over the TX
Panhandle, with east/northeast surface winds extending westward
across the Clovis NM area. Elevated storms north of this outflow
boundary continue to reinforce the cool air mass, though relative
warmth does exist south of the boundary from the South Plains into
southeast NM. Existing strong to severe storms are likely elevated
now near the Clovis area, with mainly strong/sub-severe gusts
recorded recently as the storms passed observing sites.

Farther south, a small area of storms northwest of the Midland area
is producing outflow of 30-40 kt, and this may help to stabilize the
air mass farther north if it persists.

In between these outflow boundaries, temperatures remain in the
lower 70s F with plentiful moisture, with MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg
and minimal CIN. Given southeasterly 850 mb winds around 35 kt per
LBB VWP, warm advection impinging on the northern boundary and the
substantial cold dome, additional cells may develop over the next
several hours. Marginal hail will be possible. Locally strong/severe
gusts cannot be ruled out should the tail end of the convection
moving through Clovis propagate southwestward near or south of the
boundary, or, additional cells develop south of it.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6TvRZw-yf0Abg05JAmsEyeMqlAtPWichCHSGuulkkR26xwj7wtGBu2I8pi5JKo_GweeH02Rrb= MOcdhMPBjYNl4HATGk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34360373 34660328 34890273 35080222 35230170 35110125
34840107 34420105 34130118 33660198 33250275 32960340
33010370 33390393 33560394 33990394 34360373=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)