• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0907

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 25, 2022 01:44:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 250144
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250143=20
    TXZ000-250215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0907
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0843 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

    Areas affected...South-Central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 250143Z - 250215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon across
    portions of south-central Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered strong/severe convection continues ahead of
    approaching upper tough. Storms are gradually expanding in areal
    coverage across the Edwards Plateau into the northern Hill Country.
    As deep-layer flow gradually veers across west TX, this complex of
    storms will propagate southeast into a reservoir of favorable
    buoyancy that will support organized convection and severe
    wind/hail.

    Severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NM0DKbZdoW-xAgfAHz6LwXE0cH6vVmZGfXsCllXE--vxF8WVY78vFZYpgSFJ_NRRzw5Q3T_b= WT2fRcjwoRo1Qelzfg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28710057 30799791 29299740 27579942 28710057=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 31, 2023 19:12:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 311912
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311911=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-312045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0907
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

    Areas affected...Northeastern SD...southwestern MN...and far
    southeastern ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311911Z - 312045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail and locally
    damaging downbursts could persist for the next couple hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from ABR shows some recent
    intensification of a storm cluster moving northeastward in
    northeastern SD this afternoon -- ahead of a remnant MCV. A 60 mph
    gust was recently observed with this activity. VWP data indicates a
    modest enhancement of low/mid-level flow accompanying the remnant
    MCV (around 30 kt of 0-6 km shear and a veering wind profile). This
    wind profile, combined with a diurnally destabilizing air mass
    beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, could favor a couple
    instances of marginally severe hail and localized downbursts on an
    isolated basis this afternoon. The overall severe threat should
    remain mostly confined along/immediately ahead of the remnant MCV.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zRodtcGzKVEkAQ96NS6EmUW9PlLhz_dD4GJfgECrTNo8jQGhErhPt25eP5zlOy4iqdCclj4f= xdd0B681CF73InNYo0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44389677 44849683 45149697 45429720 45629761 45989768
    46229744 46399713 46429663 46269611 45989565 45509536
    44879525 44239546 43949597 43909637 44069661 44389677=20


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