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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0904

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 24, 2022 22:57:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 242257
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242257=20
    TXZ000-250100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0904
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0557 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

    Areas affected...Rio Grande Valley in south-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

    Valid 242257Z - 250100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across the Rio Grande into
    south-central Texas may pose an isolated severe wind and large hail
    threat this evening south of WW 269. SPC has coordinated with WFO
    San Antonio to expand WW 269 south to address this potential.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that developed off the Sierra del Carmen
    mountains in northern Mexico earlier this afternoon have shown a
    recent uptick in intensity (noted in lightning data, GOES IR
    imagery, and MRMS vertically integrated ice) after a period of
    stagnant growth. These cells are also showing signs of persistence
    as they move off the higher terrain and towards the Rio Grande.
    Given a very favorable thermodyanmic environment along the river
    valley (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with modest inhibition), as well as
    strong effective bulk shear to the east/southeast, storms will
    likely cross the river into south-central Texas. Most recent CAM
    solutions show this convection struggling to persist beyond 00 UTC
    as it moves further into TX, but a few members of the experimental
    WOFS guidance suggests a cell or two may meander south of the San
    Antonio area later this evening. These storms will primarily pose a
    large hail and severe wind risk, and the uncertain spatial and
    temporal nature of the threat precludes a new watch issuance, though
    WW 269 will be extended southward to address this threat.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Avu5ulca6vi4_PTJBpA0H8gbQ8XEWEpXeno353TjFYAyOPsleb0xEep7r5dGS85_361qtCyQ= KM9Dyesgh69zItSZF4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29390114 29570079 29550036 29089984 28779954 28379944
    28109953 27899969 27819994 28030021 28310043 28690062
    29070079 29390114=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 31, 2023 01:10:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 310110
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310110=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-310315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0904
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0810 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249...

    Valid 310110Z - 310315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread across much of ww249.
    Hail/wind remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters have evolved across the
    central High Plains in partial response to a weak short-wave trough
    that currently extends from eastern WY into eastern CO. One complex
    in particular extends across northwestern KS, arcing southwest into
    western portions of ww250. While 850mb flow remains weak across
    western KS, some nocturnal increase will likely occur within the
    next few hours such that the maturing MCS along I-70 should begin to
    propagate a bit faster toward the southeast, especially if the cold
    pool continues to expand.

    Another notable slow-moving MCS is evolving over the NE Panhandle
    with more isolated strong/severe convection extending into northeast
    CO. Strongest portions of this activity are producing hail around 1
    inch. Overall, strong/severe convection should gradually spread
    across the remainder of ww249 by late evening.

    ..Darrow.. 05/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ytB8CvJjrW0Qk8wUdBhA-C1Jrdo-3jZuJO1leDQHTMzQFqgmvIRoY-aoFyouQ9jDb1iy0uk7= AGQ9E64SkV7EJV3Nwk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 38560340 42900387 42900072 38560045 38560340=20


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