ACUS11 KWNS 242127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242126=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Areas affected...Southeast NM...TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...

Valid 242126Z - 242300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread across the eastern half of ww268
over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered post-frontal convection that initiated along
the eastern slopes of the NM Rockies around mid day has gradually
expanded in areal coverage as it propagates southeast toward the TX
South Plains. This activity is evolving in advance of a digging
mid-level jet that will spread into west-central TX later this
evening. Latest radar trends, and large-scale support aloft, suggest
an MCS may evolve over the next few hours then mature as it spreads
over the northern portions of SJT CWA. Numerous updrafts are likely
producing at least marginally severe hail along the southeast NM/TX
border, and with time the threat for damaging winds may increase as
this complex transitions into an MCS.

..Darrow.. 05/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Y5wfF25UxRv2zhwzuBYLlL0N8tmuwdahUtBBcd6aKPo_yCgYLsJ_Xeyaw4sbvjDeT2iprHqQ= BKfqTC2QjyZpdfD_TY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32270452 34290453 33230071 31200072 32270452=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 302220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302220=20
KSZ000-MOZ000-310015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Areas affected...Northwest MO to south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302220Z - 310015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and gusty winds may be noted with
strongest storms this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Remnants of late-night convection that spread across
the central Plains have drifted into southeast NE/northeast KS. Over
the last few hours, robust convection has redeveloped within the
cloud-debris field, in advance of an old MCV. Ample instability
currently resides across southern/eastern KS which should support a
few strong storms within an otherwise weak-flow regime. Latest MRMS
data suggests hail is noted within the stronger updrafts but is
generally 1 inch or less. Gusty winds may also be noted with this
activity as it propagates southeast within a weakly sheared but
modestly steep lapse rate environment.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Xro3hWv_8qtk30xadzjMjHD5uKOFe0AR5eKNa0sTywZWBnug0ZPnWQH9-XAkOoWJR-jB0v1V= npHzRhoPPTvlND6-hU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38269798 38709642 39999549 39889465 38599497 37739618
37589779 38269798=20


=3D =3D =3D
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