ACUS11 KWNS 241449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241448=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-241615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241448Z - 241615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts may occur across portions of the
Upper Texas Coast the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of strong storms is lifting northward near the
Upper Texas Coast this morning at around 40 kt. Latest radar data
indicates a pocket of 45-55 kt velocities around 1-2 kft. Deep-layer
flow is rather weak, but some local enhancement is likely occurring
as this activity is developing on the east side of an MCV/lead
shortwave impulse shifting east toward the Middle Texas Coast.
Surface dewpoints in the low 70s are supporting a corridor of
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line of convection. However, low
and mid-level lapse rates remain weak, while DCAPE values are less
than 1000 J/kg. Forecast RAP soundings do indicate a modest dry
layer just above the surface, which could aid in stronger outflow as
the convection advances quickly northward. Locally strong gusts may
accompany this activity the remainder of the morning, but overall
severe threat is expected to remain marginal and a watch is not
expected at this time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5347VJRoc38L-pbj4HRwT7KtVjYOIPYbeQQu68dqQUSYddzZtJpZtHvRcHhHBRHofy3HcivTd= yfA2z2-dvwYsVEXx6E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 28779529 28969542 29839554 30149551 30329539 30429514
30519450 30479415 30319391 29949381 29409386 29099398
28919412 28799443 28759488 28779529=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 301911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301910=20
COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-302115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Areas affected...Southeast WY...Eastern CO...Northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301910Z - 302115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts are possible across the
central and southern High Plains this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown cumulus building
across the higher terrain of central CO, north-central NM, and
south-central WY from late morning until now. Lightning has recently
been observed in a few areas, indicating these cumulus have now
reached enough depth for lightning production. This overall trend of
gradually deepening cumulus is expected to continue, resulting in
progressively increasing thunderstorm coverage. Westerly mean flow
will take these currently developing storms into the lower
elevations of the southern and central High Plains.=20

The air mass over these lower elevations is already deeply mixed,
with this mixing expected to persist through the afternoon. Despite
this deep mixing, gradually increasing mid-level moisture will help
support modest buoyancy. As a result, storms will likely persist as
they move into this environment, with the high cloud bases and deep
mixing contributing to strong outflows and the potential for some
severe wind gusts. Overall severe coverage is expected to be
isolated, with the severe potential increasing farther east later
this evening as this storms and associated outflow interact with the
more buoyant air mass over that region. A watch will eventually be
needed as this activity moves east, but timing is uncertain.

..Mosier/Hart.. 05/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-2QPF64kXY9Gfp7-mQZWae6Itg7xHL-ZILI5FczdCQqDfCaf7p04XKPSykWJqHFo0cdCfuhYZ= ckW5OoIKcidz9ffzT0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON 40830519 42020575 42840556 42720445 41170390 38470307
35630338 35660452 37670485 38270485 38860487 39760519
40830519=20


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