• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0887

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 23, 2022 22:01:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 232201
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232200=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-240000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0887
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

    Areas affected...Northwest South Carolina into southwest North
    Carolina

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 264...

    Valid 232200Z - 240000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 264 continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for low-topped supercells will continue for
    at least the next couple of hours, maintaining the potential for
    weak tornadoes across northwest South Carolina into far southwest
    North Carolina.

    DISCUSSION...Recent reflectivity and velocity data from KGSP and
    KCAE continue to show transient supercell structures across
    west/northwestern portions of SC along and just ahead of a surface
    warm front. VWP observations from both WSR-88Ds shows strong veering
    in the 0-3 km layer with 0-1 SRH values between 150-300 m2/s2. While instability remains very limited, RAP forecast soundings adjusted
    for observed surface conditions suggest that ELs for mixed-layer
    parcels are still reaching the mid-troposphere and through a
    substantial layer with 40-50 knot winds (as noted in the VWP obs).
    As such, the thermodynamic environment remains sufficient to realize
    the favorable kinematics. This regime will largely remain in place
    for the next couple of hours as the post-tropical low continues to
    move into western NC where temperatures are in the low to mid 70s. Thermodynamics will likely lose sufficiency later this evening
    further downstream as the low moves into a cooler air mass and due
    to the onset of diurnal cooling, but the exact timing of when this
    will occur remains somewhat unclear.

    ..Moore.. 05/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RQOCs5UGIL17h-okotaE2gyryTdqyLBwFfBTsnH6vSyB3DaO5nGGWn-WnMqjULV4R7JkYIP2= QOEcvMyTs-WA4P4Vmw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 34718261 35158243 35468217 35698186 35788154 35668095
    35298055 35058056 34598105 34258122 34008147 34018171
    34338221 34718261=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 27, 2023 22:49:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 272249
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272248=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0887
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0548 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central/northern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

    Valid 272248Z - 280015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Convection continues within the central/northern High
    Plains. Damaging winds and large hail are the main hazards. A
    locally more favorable zone for a brief tornado will exist in
    southeast Wyoming, adjacent northeast Colorado, and the Nebraska
    Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered convection within the High Plains surface
    trough continues to the east. Eastward progression has generally
    been slow on account of upper-level winds being largely parallel to
    the trough. This is particularly the case for east-central Nebraska
    into Western South Dakota and adjacent Montana. Given all the
    storm/cold-pool interactions, damaging winds will likely be the
    primary threat. However, initial updraft pulses would pose some
    threat for large hail.

    For parts of northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and the Nebraska
    Panhandle, deep-layer shear is more perpendicular to the boundary
    and surface winds are backed to southeasterly. This setup will allow
    more broken line mode. Recent satellite/radar imagery also shows
    development of isolated storms near the WY/NE border. Damaging winds
    and large hail will remain a risk in these areas. Additionally, the
    local environment will be modestly more favorable for a brief
    tornado.

    ..Wendt.. 05/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8RTQaVZZEVCakT9RfnIqIiZrnZksGuL9Bchu6C1zMNGEyobnP_ZD92nOBzFsWHQ3rj-rjy50f= JEvkqPN56TvLp5ieNg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 40090456 41050509 43370508 44830495 45830487 46200419
    46190380 46040346 42600296 40760326 40090378 40010422
    40090456=20


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