• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0885

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 23, 2022 20:11:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 232011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232011=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-232145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0885
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0311 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

    Areas affected...portions of northwestern South Carolina into far
    southwest North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 232011Z - 232145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes may occur if convective trends
    continue to trend upwards. A Tornado Watch issuance is possible in
    the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Strong low-level shear continues to immediately precede
    the surface low center. The 1948Z GSP VWP depicts long, curved
    hodographs with 450 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, with nearly 300 m2/s2 in the
    0-1 km layer. In addition, greater insolation has been able to occur
    closer to the low, with surface temperatures warming into the 75-77F
    range amid 70+ F dewpoints very close to the belt of stronger
    low-level flow. It is possible that some of this more buoyant air
    may get entrained into the low ahead of a deepening band of
    convection which has recently begun to show signs of low-topped
    supercell development, especially in Hart County GA. Given the ample
    low-level shear, further intensification of the storms along the
    GA/SC line may support a more unconditional risk of isolated
    tornadoes. As such, convective trends are closely being monitored
    for the need of a Tornado Watch issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6NcnqodvclvrfsM03JSsnLOzaL39zXdUPpA1ygF7lIM3ZmuumIrKkm5aI0P7xBVTPyPYktPEq= Y6hdPrjGahCc9EsFXQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 34088252 34278266 34538278 34898279 35298202 35408138
    35348101 35218068 34948056 34648070 34418094 34318143
    34088252=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 27, 2023 21:54:01
    ACUS11 KWNS 272153
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272153=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-280000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0885
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0453 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

    Areas affected...Southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244...246...

    Valid 272153Z - 280000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244, 246
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will spread east across the
    southern High Plains this evening. Large hail is the primary risk
    with this activity. New severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted
    downstream into the TX High Plains to account for this risk.

    DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak mid-level
    short-wave trough is translating across central NM/far west TX.
    Scattered convection has developed ahead of this feature, along the
    western fringe of higher moisture/instability where southeasterly boundary-layer flow is evident. Latest diagnostic data suggests a
    surface boundary, augmented by early-day convection, is draped from
    near I-20, north of ABI, into southeast NM. LLJ should strengthen a
    bit after sunset across the High Plains and ongoing convection over
    southeast NM should propagate east, aided by aforementioned short
    wave. Ample buoyancy, and modest shear, exist across this region
    such that ongoing convection should be maintained deep into the
    evening.

    ..Darrow.. 05/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ELFPEoioaetX0LL0SAkDBL721DPIGMelJSOHD31JGkWzd241HH2SLXHY082PdJfEsnOQnzqF= PPEafpte5Tv-EBfGR0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32120427 35200429 35370250 32330244 32120427=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)