ACUS11 KWNS 232011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232011=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-232145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022
Areas affected...portions of northwestern South Carolina into far
southwest North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 232011Z - 232145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes may occur if convective trends
continue to trend upwards. A Tornado Watch issuance is possible in
the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Strong low-level shear continues to immediately precede
the surface low center. The 1948Z GSP VWP depicts long, curved
hodographs with 450 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, with nearly 300 m2/s2 in the
0-1 km layer. In addition, greater insolation has been able to occur
closer to the low, with surface temperatures warming into the 75-77F
range amid 70+ F dewpoints very close to the belt of stronger
low-level flow. It is possible that some of this more buoyant air
may get entrained into the low ahead of a deepening band of
convection which has recently begun to show signs of low-topped
supercell development, especially in Hart County GA. Given the ample
low-level shear, further intensification of the storms along the
GA/SC line may support a more unconditional risk of isolated
tornadoes. As such, convective trends are closely being monitored
for the need of a Tornado Watch issuance.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/23/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6NcnqodvclvrfsM03JSsnLOzaL39zXdUPpA1ygF7lIM3ZmuumIrKkm5aI0P7xBVTPyPYktPEq= Y6hdPrjGahCc9EsFXQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34088252 34278266 34538278 34898279 35298202 35408138
35348101 35218068 34948056 34648070 34418094 34318143
34088252=20
=3D =3D =3D
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